Top forecasters look at the bottom of the market as Wall Street raises forecasts for a recession over Trump’s tariffs

• Whether it’s an investment bank or not The financial world, analysts or economists, primarily agrees that tariffs are bad news before what President Donald Trump calls “liberation day.”

Economists are increasing the chances of a recession, and investors are worried about what is called tariffs.”Release dateBut there’s the story of the bottom of the market. Welcome to the week of April 2: President Donald Trump fulfills his promise to impose dollar tariffs for the dollar.

Tom Lee from Fundstrat Proposed On CNBC On Monday, the market may have the “right work” at the bottom of this week. Fundstrat co-founder has earned a reputation in his recent correct stock market predictionand his call for the bottom is a bullish signal that the worst selling may have ended, and may clear the path to rebound.

In fact, after the stock first sunk early on Monday, they cut their losses sharply, Dow I’ve become more positive.

For now, investors are worried about what tariffs will look like on April 2, whether they will hurt the economy, and other policies coming from the Trump administration, Lee said. The market is oversold and investors are taking risks, he added.

“It’s still three days so we’re looking forward to people. They’re afraid we can cut 2% for three days,” Lee said.

However, he compares the current situation with Brexit when he sees the UK withdrawing from the European Union and eventually gathering stocks, and believes the US will do well. Still, there is a distortion in the US economy at this point. People buy wine and cars before the tariffs, he said, and that’s not much for the price.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is increasingly doubting that tariffs could send the economy into a slump.

On Sunday, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandy increased the chances of a recession. He now sees a 40% chance that a recession will occur this year. He previously suspected there was a 15% chance. Zandy denounced a fierce trade war from Trump’s tariffs, denounced stubborn inflation and layoffs of Elon Musk’s government efficiency for sliding consumers Feelings.

Zandi said the next mutual tariffs would only make things worse x. “As long as tariffs and Doge cuts continue to increase, so is the possibility of a recession,” he said. I wrote it.

He’s not the only one who’s likely to be a recession. Goldman Sachs said it has 35% chance That gross domestic product will be signed for two consecutive quarters in research notes released on Sunday. Previously, investment banks only saw a 20% risk of recession.

According to the bank, tariffs are once again liable for tax-like effects on disposable income and consumer spending, and because they tend to push the market even further. If businesses face extra taxes, tariffs are considered inflation as they tend to pass the costs to consumers. I believe They are “recipes to make Americans worse.”

JP Morgan said there is a 40% chance that the economy will fall into a recession this year due to declining growth and high inflation behind the estimated 11% effective tariff rate. The bank said in a memo dated March 28th.

Automatic feespecifically, it is in the heart of an analyst. Trump has set a 25% tariff on foreign-made cars and parts. Taxation will not damage cars made in the US, but one analyst says no cars were made in the US completely

So, the car tariffs will become “backbreakers and Armageddon in the automotive industry,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a memo released Monday morning. He estimated that a typical car would cost an additional $5,000 to $10,000 for American consumers, as the cost of the automotive industry increases by $100 billion each year. “The concept of an American carmaker with all the parts in the US is a fictional story that does not exist, and it will take years to make this concept a reality,” Ives writes.

In a note released on Monday, Bank of America “Motor rates are bad,” and Ive and many others repeatedly argue that the idea of ​​creating more jobs doesn’t pass the “sound economic theory” test.

That’s what the housing world is like I’m worried Also about customs duties. Trump puts tariffs on steel and aluminum, and lumber could be next. Everything is used to build a home. Builders estimate it Taxation You can add $9,000 to every home price. Considering housing is post-pandemic Stop Due to the deterioration in affordability and the lock-in effect, many people were unable to even raise the cost once more.

This story was originally introduced Fortune.com