Airbus revised 20-year jet demand forecast despite trade tensions
By Tim Heffer
PARIS (Reuters) – Airbus revised its forecast for plane demand for Thursday for the next 20 years, saying investors and suppliers are expected to ride the current wave of trade tensions.
European plan makers said industry IT and its US rival Boeing dominate the provision of 43,420 commercial jets between 2025 and 2044.
This includes 42,450 passenger jets, an increase of 2% from the previous forecast, and 970 factory-built cargo ships, an increase of 3%.
Airbus has stuck to previous forecasts that air traffic will increase by an average of 3.6% despite shaving half the percentage of its annual trade growth forecast to 2.6% and shaving its global GDP growth forecast to just 2.5%.
“There is certainly turbulence thanks to recent geopolitical and trade situations,” Antonio da Costa, vice president of market analysis and forecasting, told reporters.
“It’s still very early… Nonetheless, the early signals give us some hope.”
The aerospace industry is flocked to by US tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump, and the prospects for retaliation by the European Union, as well as wild fluctuations in punitive obligations exchanged between the US and China.
US and Chinese officials agreed on how to restore a trade ceasefire and roll back duel restrictions on Tuesday.
Airbus officials said the latest forecasts assume the 10% basic tariff imposed by the Trump administration on most imports will remain for some time, in contrast to the deeper confusion threatened by the larger punitive tariffs.
The rise in air transport closely linked to the economy and the middle class with disposable incomes often proven to be resilient to the impact, Da Costa said.
Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury has joined the chorus of the US industry leaders to warn of the damages caused by the tariff war, calling for a return to tariff-free transactions for aerospace.
Airbus has raised demand forecasts for single-aisle planes like the A320neo family and its competing 737 Max. Over the past 20 years, 34,250 people are expected, of which 56% will be additional capacity.
Airbus revised forecasts for wide-body passenger jet delivery on 3% to 8,200 planes. That portion of the Long-Term Jets market is in high demand, led by Gulf Coast airlines.
(Reporting by Tim Hepher, Editing by Emelia Site-Matarise)