Stock markets ignore war when waiting for the Fed

• Israeli Air Force with Iran has entered its fourth day, with oil prices rising againHowever, the market appears to be shrugging from the conflict. The S&P 500 futures were inched this morning following profits in Europe and Asia.

Investors appear to be positioning the classic “buy rumors and sell news” event before the US Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave the fee where they are, so if that decision is confirmed, don’t be surprised if there is a medium profit earning.

And despite the rapid rise in the VIX volatility index, the stock market also appears to be undependent on ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

Henry Allen from Deutsche Bank put the best in a note to a client sent this morning. “Geopolitics is usually not that important for long-term market performance. This is a fairly consistent pattern that includes the Middle East for the past two years. For example, Iran attacked Israel in April 2024, then attacked Iran in 2024. Israel’s response was more limited than many expected, but this week’s event was clearly much larger than 2024.

Paul Donovan of UBS agreed: “The ongoing exchange of missile strikes between Iran and Israel this weekend has not had a significant impact on financial markets. … Further market movements are only justified if more disruptions are expected in the energy supply and shipping lanes,” he said this morning.

Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius and his team predict the Fed will be on hold. They told clients that it is not clear whether the Fed should move the interest needle and intervene, as both inflation and economic growth appear to be moderate. “The FOMC will reiterate that it will remain highly uncertain on the economic and policy outlook, which is still very uncertain, to put it on hold until it is further clarified and underestimated long-term forecasts,” they write.

Here is a snapshot of this morning’s action before the opening bell in New York:

• VIX The Fear Index rose 14% today.
• US Crude Oil After rising more than 7% last week, it rose 1.23% to $73.88 per barrel.
• S&P 500 Futures This morning, it rose 0.51% despite turmoil in the oil market.
• S&P 500 1.13% closed at 5,976 on Friday.
• Bitcoin I’ve been sitting over $107,000.
• Nikkei 225 in Japan An increase of 1.26%.
• Indian Nifty 50 A rise of 0.9%.
• China’s SSE composite It rose 0.35%.
• Stoxx Europe 600 Early trading increased by 0.35%.

This story was originally introduced Fortune.com