The Indian Vehicle Market is forecast to strengthen in the coming months – GlobalData
The wholesale volume of India’s lightweight vehicles (LVs) in April fell by 7% from month to month (mama) to 405K units. This indicates a forecast of a seasonal decline starting in March. However, this in particular showed an increase of 5% year-on-year.
Passenger car (PV) sales fell 9% from the previous month, but showed a 5% year-on-year rise at a total of 346K units. Additionally, a light commercial vehicle (LCV) with a total vehicle weight of up to 6T reported sales of 59K units – a 2% mama and a 5% year-over-year rise.
The stock market revival, prompted by the suspension of global tariff disputes, is strengthening consumer confidence. The festivals of Chaitra Navratri, Akshaya Tritiya, Bengali New Year, Baisaki and Vish also played a role, but car manufacturers and dealers maintained their promotional efforts to encourage purchases.
Reflecting seasonal patterns, retail sales of PVS and LCVs in April fell to 2% MOM and 397K units compared to 403K units and 349K units in March, according to data from the Automotive Dealer Association (FADA) to 2% MOM and 397K units compared to 403K units and 349K units in March, according to data from the Automotive Dealer Association (FADA).
Retail sales of PVS had not changed compared to the previous month, with the introduction of a limited number of new models as a result of inflationary pressures that affected discretionary income.
Furthermore, retail sales of LCVs resulted in a 11% drop in moms, due to slowing e-commerce activities and increasing competition with electric three-wheelers.
As a result, as reported by FADA, 50 days of supply was placed at the end of April, resulting in a significant increase in PV inventory levels. This coincides with the 50-55 days in March and the 50-52 days in February.
From January to April, India’s LV wholesale improved 3% before, reaching 1.7 million units. This figure consists of 1.5 million PVs (+4% year-on-year) and 240K LCVs (-1% year-on-year).
Turning to May, we promise that a robust agricultural cycle will have a positive impact on the rural economy, along with favorable crop prices.
Furthermore, the recent bond purchases of the Reserve Bank of India are expected to inject excessive liquidity into the banking system, Fada notes. This could reduce the lending rate and increase the affordability of car loans.
PV retail sales in May are expected to remain stable, but will be curbed, as consumers are waiting to launch new models and tackle high funding costs.
Furthermore, LCV sales could be affected by a continuous slowdown in e-commerce activities and an increased competition with electric three-wheelers.
We have adjusted our 2025 LV forecast slightly, but our annual LV sales forecast remains at 5 million units, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase.