The Fed meets as policymakers are expected to assert their independence amid Trump’s pressure

• The Federal Reserve is expected to stabilize interest rates. Investors are paying attention to the latest economic forecasts from Fed officials known as “dot plots.” The difference between the most bearish and most bullish officials may hold key to the future of US monetary policy.

As the Federal Open Market Committee prepares to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, the financial world already knows what to expect. More Patience.

The Fed has been sought throughout the year Reminds me The investor economy is still strong. Unemployment has not skyrocketed and inflation remains at just 2%, despite fears of opposition amid the White House’s aggressive tariffs. Even the stock market has largely recovered since April, when it was a very turbulent one.

However, there are some signs that it is drooping throughout the economy. Continuous unemployment claim The three-year high suggests that it will be difficult for unemployed people to find new jobs, and manufacturing surveys are below expectations.

The key question investors and the Fed are trying to answer is whether this slight slackening foreshadows a much worse outlook, even in a recession, or whether reports of increasing uncertainty reflect people’s feelings rather than just economic reality.

Despite the relative stability of inflation and unemployment rates, The wave of uncertainty This year we wiped out investors this year due to a change in ramp extension to trade policies that disrupt global markets. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell argued for the strength of economic data rather than sentiment, meaning central banks do not need to make decisions about interest rates.

Investors are hoping for the Fed to make a decision Maintain interest rates The current levels were 4.25%-4.5% when policymakers concluded the meeting Wednesday afternoon. Also, according to CME FedWatch, there is practical certainty later this year, with a 93% chance of easing by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump (and more). recently Vice President JD Vance) complained that Powell was taking it It’s too long to lower the rate. Trump has also repeatedly questioned the merits of the Federal Reserve becoming independent, believing that he should be involved in setting interest rates. Despite Trump’s unprecedented level of commentary on the Fed, Powell has always refused to comment on the White House criticism.

“The Fed always seems to be looking for a ‘estimation dominance’, and even when accused of being too late to act,” says Simcorp’s Managing Director Investment Decision Survey luck. “Now, they’re particularly hoping to assert their independence, so it seems like they’re most likely to maintain their presence,” he said, something similar to pressure, in one way.

The second dot plot of the year

Future FOMC meetings will also include the latest iteration of committee members’ expectations on federal fund rates. The so-called “Dot plot” will help investors clues with various opinions about the committee, even if the median response was expected to be one or two cuts in 2025.

According to Mike Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy at Glenmed, it’s important for investors to understand where the outliers in the DOT plot are.

“There are two completely separate policy playbooks on how to deal with each,” Reynolds said.

The outlook for Fed officials is often somewhat similar at this time of the year. But that may not be the case now. “In general, the dots of that year tend to coalesce around consensus. Given that we don’t expect that (this year)” luck. “The dots will remain more dispersed than normal.”

The last quarter dot plot showed committee members expected slower growth and higher inflation compared to their December forecast. Brown said it competes with slightly contradictory data this time, despite the fact that employment growth continues and the company’s revenues are strong, as production metrics and GDP outlook declines.

New developments with slow manufacturing investments and slow GDP growth in the first quarter are not sufficient to drive action from the Fed. Given the likely Fed will tackle prices, investors will be more closely analysing Powell’s words. They will want to know how this new data is affecting Powell’s outlook.

After months of ramp-prolonged instability and growing anxiety over the future of the US economy, investors are keen to see if the Fed believes that all of those concerns will have an effect.

“We haven’t seen any continued concrete actions regarding this reinforced uncertainty,” Reynolds said.

This story was originally introduced Fortune.com