Doug Schoen: Why Israeli Iran could cause a change of government like Serbia

With the President Donald Trump’s Two questions arise, the extraordinary decision to attack three important/important Iranian nuclear sites. First, how do Iranian masses respond to decisions? Secondly, does this hurt or help the possibility of a change of government?

Of course, you won’t get answers to these questions anytime soon. But I think it’s fair to say that not too far past history provides a useful guide to what can happen.

At this point, answering these questions with high degree of certainty is challenging, but there is one historical similarity that I have deeply involved in, which may provide insight.

Trump suggests Iran’s change of government while declaring that he “makes Iran great again” after we strike

Over 24 years ago, while working at Bill Clinton ManagementI was one of the key stakeholders advising the State Department on the situation in Serbia. So I led the earthly efforts to show the president to Serbian opposition. Slobodan Milosevic You may be hit by beat.

At the time, many people in both the US and Serbia believed that nearly 80 days of NATO bombing and the 1999 Kosovo War created rally around the effect of the flag in support of Milosevic.

Still, the poll I conducted ultimately demonstrated opposition.

The data reveal that despite efforts by the administration to portray Milosevic as a powerful and popular, he is very weak and has received a disadvantageous rating of 70%.

As if it was Recognised At the time, the strategic guidance I provided based on these polls led to the development of a campaign that quickly overthrew the administration, and few things considered it so vulnerable.

Here’s what post-Iran looks like if the war with Israel leads to a collapse of its regime

There is a noticeable similarity between Milosevic’s downfall and circumstances Khamenei government Today I’ll find myself.

Some people feel that foreign airstrikes reinforce nationalist sentiments that prioritize regimes that prioritize projecting auras of popularity, despite being incredibly disliked by citizens.

Furthermore, we found that there is a prevalent outrage in Serbia, particularly against the government, against the poor state of the economy. In Iran, there is a similar (if not even more intense) if not more violent, if not more violent, than the chronic mistreatment of the regime’s chronic economic and national policies.

Certainly, polling data from within Iran is limited, but it has been released by Stasis, which specializes in conducting methodologically resonating research within the country. Opinion survey That’s what I said last October.

They found that about eight in eight (78%) of Iranians feel that government policies blame the country’s economic struggles.

Furthermore, in 90 million countries, almost 60% are under the age of 30, and in the same poll, over three-quarters of Iranians (77%) believe that “Iranian youths do not see prosperity in their future in Iran.”

All this means that, like Milosevic’s regime, the Iranian government appears to have strong general support, but under the surface it is very weak and vulnerable.

The momentum of a change of government in Iran amidst conflict between Israel and Tehran

For many, Israel, especially the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu – It can bring about a change of government in Iran. It’s hard to take it seriously.

However, a more detailed investigation of the current situation and Iran’s own recent history supports the notion that Netanyahu may be more accurate than that not.

Consider history: Since 2009, there have been 10 protests nationwide, with millions of Iranians taking them to the streets against the government.

And while these protests have had a wide range of causes, from blatant election fraud to the latest demonstrations caused by murders. Mahusa Amini – They all emphasize broad opposition to the current administration.

Similarly, as I have seen in Serbia, numerous protests and their various causes reveal a rather large opposition that can effectively mobilize and put pressure on the regime under the right conditions.

That’s why we had to actively organize those movements. Serbiathese conditions have already been made clear in Iran and are now clear on a much larger scale.

Netanyahu calls on Iranian citizens to seize “opportunities” for a change of government

Apart from the desolate future facing Iranian youth, the regime’s repressive laws against nearly 44 million women citizens have essentially not transformed half of the population into second-class citizens, as hundreds of thousands of people did during the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests.

Iran International has its emphasis on how deep the hatred of the regime is. It has been reported Receive a letter of personal thanks to the Netanyahu and the Jerusalem post It has been reported Rather than Iranian sources told them, “The war “has greatly strengthened and revived new optimism among the Iranians due to the change of government.”

Sources from the post in Iran continued, “The conversation around the capital (Tehran) was focused on the last day of the regime, and they brought it to themselves.”

Outside of Iran, debate has already begun.

On one side are leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and journalists such as former national security adviser John Bolton and Yorktown Institute Chairman Seth Klopsey.

The Pentagon bends the US military decoy and strategic deception that surprised Iran and the world

Those men claim that Bolton and Cropsy of the Wall Street Journal, and Netanyahu, are talking to Fox News. Brett Bayer And in other forums, this is the most convenient moment for Iran’s regime change since the 1979 revolution.

Given the deep reservoir of anti-physical sentiment among the Iranian people, the debate is that the destruction of the military and symbols of power of the Israeli regime gives the Iranians the courage to unite and unite against the government.

On the other side of the debate is the French president. Emmanuel Macron. Macron is plagued by the efforts of failed regime changes in Iraq and Libya, and has raised doubts about the possibility of successful pursuing a regime change. I’m saying That would “contribute to chaos.”

I have some too Discussed Israeli actions can create the effect of “gathering around the flag” among Iranian people and stimulate nationalism.

To make it clear, both sides have a legitimate argument, My experience in SerbiaI believe Netanyahu and the people on his side have a much stronger case.

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The Iranian government remains weaker than ever before and under full control of the Iranian sky after Israel effectively destroys its entire chain of command.

Similarly, unlike Libya and Iraq, Iran has a well-organized opposition, with a much more established sense of national unity than either. Iraq Or Libya had it up until now.

To sum it up, there is strong evidence that Israeli beliefs could lead to the Iranian regime falling. There is Israeli belief, especially given the extreme attention of Israel in targeting only the symbols of the regime to avoid nationalism.

Of course, encouraging a change of government is risky and there is absolutely no guarantee that the next regime is what the West wants. It can bring about very well and more extreme government Innovative Guard Hard Liner.

However, not being able to take this opportunity is a similarly large mistake. History shows that when oppressed people angry at the government find their confidence and are supported solely by air forces, the outcome does not need to be confusion or the survival of the current government.

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It can lead to a real change of government.

In both Iran and Serbia, there was extensive bombing of citizens and actually civilians, causing collateral damage to civilians. For Serbs, all the net outcomes were to strengthen the resolve of the Serbs and to drive away the authoritarian dictator Milosevic. And in Iran, if history is the guide, it hopes to weaken an already vulnerable regime and provide outlets to millions of Iranians who want a greater measure of freedom and peace in life.

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