Will a ceasefire really bring peace after Trump’s historic Iran-Israel ceasefire?
newYou can listen to Fox’s news articles!
president Donald Trump It brokered a historic ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on Monday, marking a dramatic pause in the most important military conflict between the two enemies.
The Monday evening announcement came into effect 12 hours later, following a timeline designed to allow for final military operations on both sides. However, the bullet-off Iranian missile The fires in the next few hours questioned whether many Israelis had already been violated by the ceasefire.
In an interview with Fox News Digital, John Spencer, executive director of the Urban Warfare Institute, said: Implementation delay It’s not uncommon. “It’s hard to turn things off with a switch. There’s an aircraft in flight. There’s power,” he explained.
President Donald Trump will speak with reporters at the Israel-Iran ceasefire before riding Marines on the Southern Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, June 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Spencer described the US operations as historical.
“What’s historic is that the US has restricted nuclear targets (unequipped, unequipped) with zero losses, allowing Israel to do so in a way that is only America. Proliferation was nonpartisan, and this was a non-political victory.” Even after Iran struck a US base in Qatar, he said, “The president showed immeasurable restraint and continued his focus on broader goals. It prevented Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and continuing its terrorist campaign.”
Despite violence following the announcement, including an Iranian strike that killed four civilians in Israel, Spencer believes the ceasefire will be held. “Both countries are saying we are absolutely going to do that now,” he said. “Yes, President Trump is very atypical in the way he communicates with ceasefires… “Don’t drop one bomb.”“
To understand how such a ceasefire unfolds, Spencer pointed to five historical precedents characterized by delayed activation, gradual goals, and final windows of military positioning.
Israeli fighter jets take off to launch airstrikes against Yemen’s Houtsis. (IDF)
The Korean War Temporary (1953)
The truce that ended the Korean War, signed on July 27, 1953, consisted of a deliberate 12-hour delay before it became effective. “This allowed for the final military movement before the synchronization stopped,” Spencer said. This model has a close response to the Israeli-Iran ceasefire.
Tour group visits Korean War Memorial on Veterans Day in Washington, DC
Yom Kippur War Ceasefire (1973)
During the fourth Israeli Arabian War on October 18, 1973, General Moshe Dajan, the then-Senior-Arab War, General Ariel Sharon, was standing on the Egyptian side of the Suez Canal. (Photo by Upi/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)
Spencer noted that in 1973 Israel used the last time before an unexplored ceasefire to reposition forces. “Israel made a lot of movement in the last few hours… including siege to the Third Army and moving the city of Suez,” he said.
Trump announces historic Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement to end the “12-day war”
Dayton Accord (1995)
The Bosnian woman walks between the tombstones of the Memorial Centre Potkali near Slebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 20, 2016. (AP Photo/Ameruemrik)
The Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the Bosnian War and mediated by the United States, established a step-by-step timeline for military withdrawals and political agreements. “It was the United Nations, several countries that signed an agreement on what both sides do and don’t,” Spencer explained, in contrast to the more looser terms of the current Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Israel Hama Cerez-Fire (2014)
Smoke rose above a building northeast of Gaza city after missiles landed on August 21, 2014, which was launched from Gaza. (Robert Schmidt/AFP by Getty Image)
Spencer also had similarities to the 2014 war in Gaza. “Hamas would say, ‘Well, I want a ceasefire…until they break the next ceasefire,” he said. Many of these contracts had an activation delay of 12-72 hours, similar to what is currently seen in Iran.
Proposal of Ukraine-Russia ceasefire
Soldiers from Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade will fire French MO-120-RT heavy mortar on the Russian troops at the forefront of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on Wednesday, May 22, 2024. (Iryna Rybakova via AP)
More recently, during the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war, ceasefires were often short and symbolic. “President Putin said, ‘I want three days so we can parade,'” Spencer said, highlighting how a temporary suspension can help both strategic and political needs.
Past ceasefires were designed to slow escalation, but Spencer sees this as part of a broader strategic doctrine. “It should be nonpartisan so that Israel can do it alone in the US,” he said. “It’s unique because the United States does a very limited operation without losing America’s life once…it’s unique.”
Click here to get the Fox News app
The rescuers are working at the scene of the explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran on Friday, June 13, 2025. (Iran’s Red Crescent Association via AP)
Spencer described the ceasefire as “off ramp” for both sides. “The ceasefire here means that both sides will stop shooting each other, not that Iran will stop chanting death and death to America. To Israel“But he said, but the manipulation and hostility ceased.”
Despite the lack of formal terms and international enforcement, Spencer believes the agreement has created a new precedent. “This established a new doctrine,” he said. He cited Israel’s ability to control Iran’s skies and the US response to the threat of nuclear proliferation. “If Iran decides to rebuild some sites somewhere, the threat will be more than ever.”
Spencer concluded, “It’s a victory. When the red line is really a red line, they’re effective at deterrent.”