Holiday trades, trade negotiations and other important things to watch this week
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The market enters the final week of June with the S&P 500 ($spx) (SPY) and is resilient near recent highs despite market volatility. With the S&P 500 up over 25% from its low price in April, traders could become their biggest enemy in preparation for a short holiday week with key employment data, manufacturing updates and Tesla quarterly delivery counts. The White House has downplayed the importance of the July 9 tariff deadline, but trade negotiations have focused on following the aggressive US-China trade rollout last week, when Trump was promoted. The suspension to Canada on Friday was quickly shrugged by investors, suggesting that the market is increasingly skilled at analyzing trade rhetoric from substantial policy changes. This week is packed with economic calendars that culminated in Friday’s employment report, but the market closes early on Thursday for Independence Day celebrations.
Here are five things to look at in the market this week.
Production momentum check
Chicago PMI on Monday began a comprehensive assessment of the manufacturing sector’s health, followed by Tuesday’s dual manufacturing measurements by manufacturing the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and the PMI at 10am. ISM reports typically bring more market weight thanks to their broader research foundation and long track record as a key economic indicator. Manufacturing has faced headwinds throughout 2025, with months showing areas of contraction below the important 50 levels. Signs of expansion could boost cyclical sectors and industrial stocks, but the continued decline could raise concerns about broader economic resilience towards the second half of the year. The manufacturing price component of ISM is particularly scrutinized for inflation signals, especially given its continuous focus on price stability. Companies in the materials, industrial and machinery sectors can have increased volatility based on these measurements.
Tesla drama streaming
On Wednesday, Tesla (TSLA) is hoping for the second quarter delivery numbers that are expected. This is a key test for electric vehicle leaders after a 13% year-over-year decline in first quarter delivery that disappointed investors. Wall Street is looking closely at whether Tesla can improve its demand momentum amid growing competition in the EV space and ongoing market share pressure. Delivery numbers provide important insight into the consumer appetite for Tesla’s vehicles and the effectiveness of recent price adjustments and promotion strategies. Beyond heading numbers, investors analyze geographical performance, model mix, and commentary on production challenges and supply chain issues. The results could affect not only Tesla’s stock price, but also wider sentiment towards related supply chain companies, such as the EV sector and battery manufacturers, charging infrastructure providers and automotive technology companies.
Powell’s policy perspective
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s scheduled Tuesday at 9:30am represents the most important monetary policy event of the week as the market continues to analyze central bank interest rate outlook for the remainder of 2025. Powell’s statements are closely analyzed about the evolution of the Fed’s views on the timing and pace of potential rate adjustments, particularly given mixed economic signals and the strength of the ongoing labor market. His commentary could affect fee-sensitive sectors such as technology, utilities, finance, and more, while providing guidance on the Fed’s assessment of the current economic situation. The timing of the audio that matches the release of production data creates the possibility of an amplified market response if Powell’s observations arrive or conflict.
Employment reality check
The 8:30am employment report on Friday represents the most consequential data release of the week, providing unemployment rates, non-farm pay and a very important average hourly revenue count. The ADP Employment Report, Wednesday at 8:15am, provides an initial preview of private sector employment trends, while the first unemployment claim on Thursday provides the latest snapshot of labor market health. Employment remains strong throughout 2025, complicating the Fed’s battle for inflation, while supporting consumer spending and economic growth. A significant deviation from recent strength could change expectations for the monetary policy and impact sector, ranging from consumer discretion to housing companies. The average hourly revenue data is specifically scrutinized as a key inflation indicator, with wage growth being a central concern for policymakers. Jolts Job Openings Datas’ Convergence Tuesday, ADP Wednesday and comprehensive employment report will create the potential for sustainable volatility for employment-sensitive sectors on Friday.
Holiday Trading Dynamics
The early markets on Thursday will end at 1pm on Independence Day, and will create a unique trading environment that will amplify the volatility around major data releases, following the Friday holiday. Historical patterns suggest that weeks of shortened holidays often experience reduced liquidity, leading to more pronounced price movements at lower volumes. Within a shortened trading schedule, a concentration of critical economic data, including manufacturing measurements, Tesla delivery and employment reports, can generate compression reaction times and increase market sensitivity. Traders need to be prepared for potentially wide spreads and more volatile price actions, particularly around Wednesday’s data release and Friday morning employment reports. Holiday timing can also affect system positioning decisions and options expiration, adding another layer of complexity to already data-heavy weeks.
I wish you good luck this week. Don’t forget to check out my daily optional articles.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster had no position (directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published barchart.com
