Trump may have dropped the clue on social media that he hasn’t had a good job count

Most economists argue that President Trump’s tariff policies will hurt the economy by increasing the prices of what Americans need to import, and by moving several supply chains to the US, which is costly and less efficient in manufacturing.

However, inflation and unemployment are barely occurring, with previous hard data showing little damage. In fact, companies that have ordered excessive order from overseas to try to put tariff deadlines on the forefront It’s increased Economic activities in the first half.

Nevertheless, the federal government has cut jobs and there have been massive layoffs in many companies – Microsoft Very recently. The ADP Private Salary Report showed 33,000 job cuts in June.

Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen believe their ADP numbers are garbage.

“The predictions for ADP performance are disastrous,” they said. luck. “ADP underestimates initial private pay estimates in both April and May, and the size of these mistakes is far from an outlier. ADP is currently facing major headwinds from the effects of Talf and suggests that it is facing a continuous slump in homebuilding. That headline number… we tend to ignore it.”

The Pantheon team is also worried about private housing construction, which fell 6.7% year-on-year in May.

Pantheon estimates a 100,000 increase in non-farm salaries. Goldman Sachs’ forecast is 85,000. The consensus is 110,000.

“The big data indicator is soft and we expect the end of a temporary protection state for around 350,000 Venezuelan immigrants in mid-May will impose 25k resistance and will reduce federal payroll by 15K.

UBS also considers it to be low numbers.

“There are hints that today’s report may be weak,” Paul Donovan said. “U.S. presidents usually see data the night before their release. Last night, US President Trump issued a social media post saying that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will step down. Policy uncertainty and the biggest tax hikes of today are more likely to damage the labour market than the Federal Reserve policy, but the post may inform weaker data.”

When companies drop out workers, they also cut costs and show up in the bottom line as an increase in earnings per share, so stock traders usually like it when unemployment rates increase.

The S&P 500 futures held up this morning, and investors yesterday led the index to an all-time high. JPMorgan’s Emma Wu and his team say retailers have returned to the market in recent weeks.

Putting together low ADP figures, weak data metrics, Trump is trying to blame Powell for everything, and Trump, who retailers are trying to buy the market, suggests investors are betting on the number of jobs they have today.

Of course, if they’re all wrong, expect today’s market volatility as investors eat big slices of crow pie and Trump takes a big win lap.

Here is a snapshot of the action before the New York Opening Bell:

• S&P Futures rose slightly this morning
• S&P 500 he is new height, 6,227.42.
• The European and British markets were trending with early trading.
• Nasdaq Composite rose almost 1%.
• Dow Jones was flat.
• Korean Cospi increased by 1.34% this morning.
• China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.62%.
• Bitcoin is $109,000.
• The Nikkei 225 in Japan is flat.