Scepticism and hope for the end of the Gaza War before the Trump Netanyahu Conference | Israeli-Palestinian conflict news

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the United States on Monday. Visiting analysts look forward to discussing proposals for a ceasefire in Israel’s war with Gaza, focusing on celebrating the US’s self-active victory over Israel and Iran.

This is Netanyahu’s third time meeting President Donald Trump this year. The US and Israel claim that they “decapitate” Iran’s nuclear program During the 12-day war, and if he resumes nuclear activities, he would resume bombings of Iran.

Last week, Trump said Israel agreed to the terms of a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza.

July 4th, Hamas responded “positive” About the latest ceasefire proposal for Qatar and Egyptian mediators.

Is a ceasefire realistic?

On Friday, after Hamas responded to the proposal, Trump said there could be a “next week’s deal” and promised to be “very solid” with Netanyahu to secure a ceasefire.

Israel has since said Hamas has requested changes to its proposal. I found it “unacceptable”However, Israeli negotiators will discuss the proposal in Qatar on Sunday.

According to a leaked copy of the deal acquired by Al Jazeera, the ceasefire will involve a 60-day suspension and phased release of some of the 58 Israeli prisoners of war held in Gaza since the Hamas-led attack that led Israel on October 7, 2023.

The war between Israel and Gaza, described by UN experts, legal scholars and human rights groups as a massacre against Palestinians, killed at least 57,000 people, mostly women and children.

Many experts told Al Jazeera that a temporary ceasefire would lead to a permanent end to the war.

“The way (ceasefire conversation) is framed makes me skeptical,” said Omar Rahman, an Israeli and Palestinian expert at the Council of Global Affairs.

Rahman believes Trump is focused on releasing Israeli prisoners, but he added that it is not to end the war and suffering of the people of Gaza.

Trump He previously promised to end the war After pushing for a ceasefire just days before he became president in January.

But two months later, when Israel unilaterally resumed its attack on Gaza and killed thousands of people, Trump did nothing.

Myrav Sonsein, an Israeli-Palestinian expert at the International Crisis Group, said it could happen again.

“It all depends on Trump and the US (on Netanyahu) and maintains real pressure, but that’s very suspicious,” she told Al Jazeera.

“I might have a ceasefire of sorts, but I’m optimistic, but the longevity and terminology are very questionable,” Sonsein said.

“It’s also possible that we can see a ceasefire that doesn’t last, as Israel is still often bombing Israel just (in Gaza) just bombing something,” she added.

Yaser Al-Banna, a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, said many of the strips are divided on whether a ceasefire will end the war. Everyone prays for it, but some people can’t imagine Netanyahu sticking to the deal.

Netanyahu argues that the war would not end without a “complete victory” over Hamas, a concept he has not defined.

“Around half of Gaza are very pessimistic. The other half thinks this could be different this time as interest is shared between Israel, the Palestinians, the Arab countries and the US that will end this war,” he said.

Glory and Pragmatism

Many analysts believe Trump is driven by his desire to attack epic deals to boast about his global achievements.

On Monday, he will likely praise the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, ostensibly, despite it being untrue, and express his desire to regain the Israeli prisoners of war in Gaza.

He also hopes to rule out the “Gaza issue” in order to pursue more regularised transactions between Israel and neighboring Arab countries, said Khaled Elgindi, an expert in Israel and Palestinians and professor of Arab studies at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

“Trump wants to say he has taken back the Israelite hostages… and has obtained a Palestinian state… and he can call himself the master of the universe, but getting those things is much more difficult than he thinks,” Elgindi told Al Jazeera.

It is unclear whether Netanyahu’s political calculations match Trump’s ambitions.

Israel’s next parliamentary election must take place by October 2026, and Netanyahu can go to vote earlier and is riding the wave of popularity if he succeeds in returning the remaining prisoners.

Like Trump, he’ll promote what he calls A spectacular victory over Iran To the people of Israel.

These considerations are important as Netanyahu’s frail far-right coalition, combined by pressure to extend the war with Gaza, is likely to collapse if a permanent ceasefire is reached, said Hugh Lovatt, an Israeli-Palestinian expert at the European Council of Foreign Relations.

“At the end of the (possible) 60-day ceasefire, (Netanyahu) was able to go to elections by committing to the full end of the war and disintegrating his coalition. Or, if he judged the time he was not suitable for election, he could return to the war to maintain his (fall-right) coalition together,” he told Al Jazeera.

Possibly, almost immeasurable results

Inauguration is particularly important for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, facing several domestic legal accusations of fraud and bribery.

During the much-anticipated meeting with Trump, experts hope to discuss Netanyahu’s trial.

Netanyahu’s position as prime minister allowed him to undermine Israel’s judicial system by appointing loyalty to the High Court and delaying court hearings.

Trump is keenly aware of Netanyahu’s dilemma.

June 25th, He called on Israel to stop accusations against Netanyahu, The trial is called a “witch hunt.” Trump’s comments suggest that he is trying to put pressure on Netanyahu’s enemies to issue pardons to end the war with Gaza, Georgetown’s Elgindi said.

Elgindi referred to Trump’s recent social media posts to hint that military aid to Israel would be suspended unless the charges against Netanyahu were dropped.

“The United States spends billions of dollars in years protecting and supporting Israel than any other country. We are not going to support this,” Trump wrote on June 28th.

Elgindi said that it is the major, almost immeasurable thing to leave the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu.

“I haven’t seen him following, but this is a typical (threat) Trump makes,” he told Al Jazeera. “He (the technique) is for terrifying mail and forced use. That’s his diplomatic version.”

Elgindi added that Trump threatens to cut military aid to Israel to protect Netanyahu and threatens not to protect the hungry Palestinians of Gaza.

The decision to forgive Netanyahu comes from Israeli President Isaac Herzog, but such a move is unprecedented and the president has not shown that he intends to do so.

Analysts believe that if Herzog agrees to leave his political life, he may be willing to forgive Netanyahu, but this is not merely to secure a ceasefire.

Zonsein, a native of the crisis group, added that Israel has “for years” warned that it is in the interest of its people to reach a plea deal with Netanyahu for his transnational strength.

Their only condition is that Netanyahu agrees to leave politics.

“I don’t think that’s something Netanyahu is considering. If he was willing to leave his political life, he might have already negotiated a plea deal,” she told Al Jazeera.