Big Game Hunting: Trump’s Tariff Inflation

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My safari hat has been going for a month in search of big game inflation.

I blame Walmart (WMT) CFO John David Rainey To get into this wardrobe.

“And we try our best to keep prices low, but we can’t help but see some prices go up on certain items.” Rainey told me in mid-May. After Walmart reported first quarter revenue.

Rainey responded to my questions about the impact of the new Trump tariffs and said the increase would be noticeable in the weeks.

“Well, if you have a 30% tariff on something, you’ll probably look at double digits (with price increases),” Rainey warned.

I have been constantly wary of eye-opening signs of inflation that will lead to a debate on potential Fed lifts this year (this is dormant). Or, at a minimum, updated market volatility with a more uncertain outlook.

Overall, my hunting expeditions are lacking.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.2%. Due to the tame jump, the 12-month inflation rate was 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. This report hit the wire on May 13th.

Still, data points are data points.

Also, surprisingly, there was inflation expectations I read in the University of Michigan’s May sentiment report.

Year-long historic inflation expectations remained largely unchanged at 6.6% compared to 6.5% in April. The rise marked the smallest increase since the election, ending the fourth consecutive month of a “very big” jump in short-term inflation expectations.

Long-term inflation expectations for May fell to 4.2% from 4.4% in April. This was the first decrease since December 2024.

Again, a data point is a data point.

I hate being a bearer of bad news, but I have begun to range the inflation charged in the grasslands. What I’m seeing seems to be verifying what Rainey said to me, and was able to set the stage for a negative surprise for the Bulls on the day of the inflation report.

A new study by Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton shows that major retailers still rely on China and other production markets.

A Straton survey found that average footwear prices rose 13% in May compared to the previous year. The average for the previous six months was 1%. Under Armour (do) and owned (Tonido) It was cited as being aggressive due to recent price increases.