Economists resonate with Trump’s customs policy with the 100-day mark

president Donald Trump They ran a second-phase campaign on the pledge to lower prices, create jobs and impose strict tariffs on imports from China in particular.

Dubbed “Tarrant Man” last fall, he told an audience at a Chicago economic club, “The most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs.” However, it is unclear whether he will be able to implement the harsh mutual tariffs that Trump announced on dozens of countries in April in his first months of office.

Now, the economist 100 days after his second term Talking to Fox News Digital They believe that these proposed mutual tariffs are politically motivated, unnecessary and will not secure profits from the US trading partners that Trump wanted.

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Instead, they warned that Trump’s tariffs could be crushed by billions of dollars in trade to a halt between the two biggest economies in the world, disrupting global supply chains and torpedoing the US economy into a massive slump or recession.

University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers told Fox News Digital in an interview that when Trump took office, the chance of a recession was “probably about 10%.” “Now they’re about 55%.”

It is unclear whether Trump will continue to push these unpopular tariffs. In the short term, uncertainty and volatility remain.

The impact of short-term tariffs

Trump announced tariffs on April 2nd, known as “liberation day.” The announcement included both a universal baseline tariff of 10%, and plans to enact large tariffs on dozens of other countries, including China.

These new import taxes quickly sent the stock market to freefall, causing one of the biggest daily S&P 500 losses since World War II, prompting deep and uncertain uncertainty about the possibility of a next move.

“The only thing that has pushed the chances of a recession so high and very quickly is the chaos that comes from the White House,” Wolfers said.

Trump then suspended mutual tariffs for 90 days, encouraging the administration to “trade” with trading countries and encourage more investment in US manufacturing. Still, some prices have already risen in anticipation of higher costs under the new tariff regime.

Uncertainty also plays a role. Trump’s tariff announcement In April, many large container ships suddenly stopped cargo to the US earlier this month, urging them to return to their former port. This means that price increases for everyday products will soon increase at certain big box retailers like Walmart and Target next month.

David H. Feldman, an economist and professor at William & Mary College, said in an interview that these price increases “will not show up tomorrow, but will be showing up over the next few months.

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Trump says tariffs will target foreign competitors and reduce the trade deficit, but the costs are primarily on workers and middle-class Americans who purchase the majority of their imports.

Wolfer said Trump’s focus on the “deficit” in trade was based on a general misconception.

“What that means is that we sell small quantities in China, and they sell us a large quantity,” he explained. But for all the dollar bills that go to China, the US has what Americans want to buy, like T-shirts.

“We have a dollar deficit, but we have a surplus.”

Possibility of Discalation

There are few signs of that Trump’s tariffs It brings the benefits he has been sought, particularly, by overseeing US production with Asian countries and ensuring better trade transactions.

Instead, experts warn that these countries are likely to avoid U.S. markets and supply chains over time.

“If these tariffs are maintained, there will be very few transactions between the US and China,” said Gary Klyde Huhbauer, a senior non-resident of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in an interview, in an interview.

Approximately $650 billion is at risk in annual trade between the two countries, and in the long run it will have a knockdown effect on global commerce.

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Trump’s tariffs also abandon the decades of international understanding that depoliticized trade disputes, Feldman said.

The US is “moving from a system based at least on mutually acceptable rules of conduct to a system that does not have it as its anchor,” Feldman, whose research focuses on global trade policy, told Fox News Digital. This shift allows governments to target foreign countries individually and provide selective tariff relief to businesses and industries “when we make “bids.”

“America is now the master of shakedowns.”

Next Steps

After the market rebound, Trump appears to be warming to the idea of ​​easing his proposed 145% mutual tariffs in China.

Economists say he’s likely to do so if the economy is sour or if the past is precedent, if he sees a significant drop in poll numbers.

Still, the path to discussion remains uncertain. Last week, China denied Trump’s claim that both countries were negotiating tariff contracts after he alleged in an interview that he had reached a “200 contract.”

economist Trust Trump We will at least partially reduce tariffs by July at least, but we warn him that he is playing a brink-high stakes game that could hit our consumers and businesses the most violently.

“What I’m worried about is that the immediate impact of uncertainty is business investment in trade-exposed industries, leading to a recession,” Feldman said. “But it can get worse. It turns into financial panic. And everyone started saying, ‘Hey, if I had to go into money and cash, I can’t become a Treasury letter.” All bets are off when we move on a flight to cash. ”

If that happened, he said, “We could slip into 2008 again.”

Trump refused to admit that his early days were not a major success.

In a recent interview with Time Magazinehe touted the first 100 days as “very successful,” and wrote that for the US president it was “the best month, the best second month, and the best three months.”

He dismissed stock market volatility and rising inflation as temporary “market fluctuations,” calling it a “transition period.”

Trump said he would do so when asked if he would consider it a victory if the tariffs remained 50% or 50% of the imports in the future.

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“A complete victory,” he said.

“Everyone will benefit.”