Elon Musk is predicting a recession this year. 8 sleazy signs we can actually head towards one
- Elon Musk Yesterday he said he predicted a recession later this year. A call many executives have made since President Donald Trump implemented his tariff regime. The threat to business activities also raised concerns about a potential recession. Some consumer behavior can indicate when the recession is on the way.
With Elon Musk and Donald Trump It’s full of mud Thursday, Tesla CEO I said The president’s tariffs are “will” It causes a recession The second half of this year. ”
Musk could be working on something. Other executives have been on the same mindset for a while since President Trump set the cleaning fee in early April. He later placed the highest fee for the suspension, but the risk remains. Survey results release chief executive officer In May, we showed 46% of CEOs. Predict the recession Or slowing down for the next six months. Goldman Sachs also announced in May. 35% chance of a recession.
In April, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that the US could see something.Worst than a recession. ”
“We’re at the point of decision making and we’re very close to a recession. If this doesn’t handle well, we’re worried that it’s worse than a recession,” Dario told NBC in April. “We have something deeper. We’re breaking down financial order.”
Executive forecasting and investment banking analysis are more reliable ways to predict economic downturns, but there are some odd recession indicators that come directly from the consumers themselves.
Campbell’s soup
In this week’s revenue call, Campbell CEO Mick Beekizen said “home cooking preferences are growing,” adding that it is at its highest level since early 2020 and could be a bad sign for the economy.
Consumers will eat less and choose more inexpensive alternatives like Campbell’s soup. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary items such as crackers and chips has decreased, Beekhuizen said.
snack
Campbell’s already has its discretionary spending on snacks beginning to decline. So are other major snack food companies.
February, Nestle I’ve posted Weakest sales growth in over 20 years. PepsiComanufacturers of Lay’s and Tostitos reported a 2% decline in net sales and a 4% decline in the volume of delicious snacks earlier this year.
“The situation for consumers in many markets remains restrained,” and “has an uncertain outlook.” I said Ramon Lagerda, CEO of PepsiCo.
pizza
Also, in the food-related field, pizza purchases serve as indicators of economic situations. Bloomberg analysis On the public Friday, low-income consumers were “priceeded from pizza,” with sales at the same store dropping in quarter at Pizza Hut, Papa John’s and Domino’s.
Since 2019, the average price for big pizzas in the top five chains has risen 30% to $18.19, Richard Shank, an analyst at market research firm Technomic, told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Nestlé reported that frozen pizza was one of the “decreased performance” due to pricing, according to Bloomberg.
lipstick
Lipstick index It became popular during the 2008 recession and originated from the heirs of Estee Lauder. Leonard Roder It noted that after the 2001 terrorist attacks, lipstick sales at his company rose.
The idea is that when the economy is struggling, there is a tendency for sales of affordable luxury items such as lipsticks, nail polishes and perfumes to increase. Consumers may be strapping, but they hope that affordable items will feel normal. This is a $5 lipstick from a convenience store.
Recently announced beauty of elf Acquired Haley Bieber’s makeup company Lord reported that its net sales increased 28% on May 28th. L’Oreal It has been reported In April, lip products “facilitated a strong innovation lineup,” helping the consumer products sector surpass the market. The beauty of Ulta There was also a strong revenue report in late May. Online Sales Jump 4.5%.
Men’s underwear
Another strange recession indicator is the indicator for men’s underwear. Alan Greenspan, who served as Federal Reserve Chair from 1987 to 2006, follows the index and assumes that he will treat the purchase of men’s underwear as discretionary spending and buy less during a recession.
Calvin Klein, one of the most ubiquitous men’s underwear brands, saw fourth quarter revenue 5% drop According to CFO Zac Coughlin, this is because of a “harder than expected macroeconomic background.”
Champagne
Consumers may purchase affordable luxuries during recessions, but tend to avoid more expensive treats like champagne. Cheerful sales fell dramatically in 2024 Sales data for the provisional February According to the company, sales continue to decline this year. Wine searcher.
“Champagne is a true barometer of consumer mood.” I said Maxime Toubart, president of Champagne Cindy Cat General Devinarron (SGV) and co-chairman of Comité Shampagne. “This is not a celebration time, not only is it going on inflation and global conflict, but it also has economic and political uncertainty in the biggest markets of champagne, such as France and the US.”
As costs continue to rise, “people have less disposable income to splurge on champagne,” said Emma Versault, former director of the alcohol business at a retail technology company. I said luck. “So, while there may be fewer celebrations, it’s not a very luxurious celebration.”
The moving rich
One Tiktok user also suggested that wealthier people are moving more and more exclusively to places that are recession-related.
“There is a new level of exclusivity,” the user said. “People are trying to climb this social ladder and be around the rich, trying to become rich, trying to improve all of that. People already there, the established rich – are far apart.
“A new tier is open,” she added, noting that the airline is adding more exclusive lounges.
“You feel every time 99% breaks the ceiling, or at least every time the cracks and rich builds another level with another glass ceiling.
Storage Unit
As housing becomes more and more expensive, people head towards storage units to accommodate goods when they cannot be reduced. a Financial Times analysis It has been revealed that the number of storage units released in April is increasing. This could serve as an indicator of a recession.
This story was originally introduced Fortune.com