Federal Reserve Powell said six times at a press conference yesterday – bad news for work counts tomorrow?
The US Federal Reserve Chair held a fully predictable press conference yesterday, saying he was looking forward to more data before considering a downward move, as he had been holding interest rates at a level of 4.25%.
The market liked: Europe and Asia are rising roughly this morning, except for China. Unexpected deterioration in manufacturing. More importantly, the S&P 500 futures outperform almost completely pre-market points following positive revenue calls from Meta and Microsoft.
But there was one theme that Powell has returned to, and that isn’t that positive. It is a “negative risk” for the labor market. Powell referenced this phrase Six It was the time of his press conference.
“We see negative side risks in the labor market,” he told reporters. “The labour market looks solid. Inflation is above target, and even if we look at the impact of tariffs, I think it’s still a little above target. That’s why we’re at stake.
That’s actually a pretty good sum of what economists are currently seeing in employment data. Some are close to full employment, but the recruitment market is slowing, with some of the good headlines being covered by one-off moves in government and education employment.
Some analysts believe that U.S. employment will not be stronger or stronger in the coming months.
“Chair Powell’s reading of economic data was similar to ours. He highlighted the softer pace of growth in the first half of the year, saying that the labour market remains solid, but said that inflation is a large part of the way back to 2%, and that “rational base cases” suggest that “rational base cases” are small, suggesting that prices are at a small level. Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius and his team told clients in a note this morning.
Lawrence Werther and Brendan Stuart of Daiwa Capital Markets have noticed the same thing. “I have found it interesting several times that the authorities pay attention to the employment risks of double duties.
Job numbers (giving non-farm salary and technical name) are scheduled to be released tomorrow. If it’s weak, expect stock to react strongly.
“Our forecast is that employment growth will weaken in July and unemployment will be higher. This will likely raise the Federal Reserve concerns about risks to the labour market and throw more support behind the initial speed reductions than our baseline.”
UBS’s Paul Donovan has generally made a thin observation as to why American companies are redirecting their factories to America but are not actually creating jobs. The new factory is full of robots, not humans. It appears to represent capital in labour alternatives,” he said.
Here is a snapshot of the action before the New York Opening Bell:
- S&P 500 Futures This morning, it rose 1% before the market price after the index fell 0.12% yesterday.
- Stoxx Europe 600 Early trading increased by 0.14%.
- UK FTSE 100 Early trading saw an increase of 0.52%.
- Japan Nikkei 225 An increase of 1.02%.
- China’s CSI 300 index A decrease of 1.82%.
- South Korea Kospi A decrease of 0.28%.
- India’s Nifty 50 An increase of 0.08%.
- Bitcoin It’s still over $118K.