Gas prices expected to rise modestly after we attack at Iran’s nuclear facility
Patrick De Hahn, head of gasbuddy’s oil analysis, says the rise in gas prices due to the potential Iranian closure in the Strait of Hormuz “will not last long.”
Drivers don’t have to worry Large priced spikes Still on gas pumps, according to industry analysts.
Oil prices, which account for more than half of what consumers pay at the pump, fell on Monday morning after we hit a strike at three important Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend and temporarily surged on Sunday.
The price of West Texas intermediate (WTI) sat at a year-long high, but as the Israeli-Iran conflict intensified, global benchmark Brent crude oil approached five months’ height last week. As of Monday, the WTI had dropped to about $73 per barrel, while Brent was sitting at about $76 per barrel.
Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at Gasbuddy, said this is good news for the people at pumps. The “knee jerk” response in the market is typical after major activity.
“Drivers will continue to see a slow and steady rise in gas prices for now,” De Hahn said. “You don’t have to worry about the massive spikes yet.”
Customers will refuel at Love’s gas station in Dallas, Texas on May 7, 2025. (Getty Images/Shellby Tauber via Getty Images/Bloomberg)
He estimated the increase over the week was between 10 and 15 cents, which resembles what consumers saw last week.
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, expects gas prices to only have a “conservative” rise of 3-5 cents over the next few days.
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However, Lipow said retaliatory attacks by Iran could surprise the oil market and lead to much higher prices.
Oil prices fell on Monday after a temporary surge on Sunday after being hit by three important Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. (Getty Images/Shellby Tauber via Getty Images/Bloomberg)
The market believes China, which buys more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports along with a large amount of Middle Eastern crude oil, will put pressure on Iran to avoid closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran threatened to close the strait to transport it after the US attacked at Iran’s nuclear facility.
“Closing the straits may not be in Iran’s economic benefits, but if Israel attacks a major export facility on the Hague Island, they may do so,” Lipou said.
The tankers will be found on June 23, 2025 at the Khor Fakkan container terminal along the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that passes a fifth of the world’s oil output. (Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)
The Strait is an important waterway that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The waterways process the world’s largest crude oil tankers and are considered one of the most important oil choke points in the world. Energy Information Management (EIA).
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In 2024, 20 million barrels of oil per day, about 20% of the world’s oil liquid consumption, flowed through the waterways. According to the EIA, if oil closes there are few alternative options to move oil out of the strait either.
According to Lipow, if oil exports through the straits are affected, oil prices could easily reach $100 per barrel. This will increase gasoline prices by around 75 cents per gallon from recent levels. There is a prediction that oil could rise from $120 to $130 per barrel. In that case, gasoline prices will rise by $1.25 per gallon.