Global coal demand remains on record as electricity demand surges

The world cannot release a grip of coal immediately.

“We can’t destroy coal,” said US President Donald Trump. I mentioned at the recent World Economic Forum. “It’s not the weather, it’s not the bomb.”

US exports of coal Despite declining domestic consumption, it is steadily rising to meet the growing global demand for the world’s dirtyest fossil fuels.

In addition, in 2024, global coal capacity reached a new record of nearly 2,175 gigawatts. Data from the Global Energy Monitor is shown on February 6th. Coal capacity is the overall output that can be generated from a coal-fired power plant.

“We are pleased to announce that we are a great opportunity to help you,” said Dorothy May, project manager for Global Mining Tracker, Global Energy Monitor.

Global coal demand is also expected to violate another fresh record high of 8.777 billion tonnes in 2024, remaining at a similar level until 2027. International Energy Agency It was predicted.

China recently reported it That coal imports skyrocketed 14.4% in 2024.This amounted to 542.7 million tons compared to 47442 million tons the previous year.

The world’s second largest economy is also the world’s largest coal consumer, accounting for more than 56% of global demand in 2023. The latest figures from the IEA have been shown.

According to MEI, China’s record-breaking coal stockpile strategy is primarily directed at preparing the country for potential power shortages caused by extreme weather events.

Hydroelectric power, wind, solar energy It constituted almost 30% of China’s electricity mix In 2023, data was presented from the energy think tank Ember Energy. When hydropower output decreases as a result of insufficient rainfall, the Chinese government often relies on coal power to ensure energy security, MEI added.

“And yet another major barrier is not the availability of renewable energy infrastructure, but the difficulty of transmitting solar and wind power across states,” she said, and coal is now on the way to grid integration and grid integration. He added that it will remain China’s “important energy backbone.” The management team is fully developed nationwide.

In India, climate-induced extreme heat has caused energy demand for cooling to skyrocket, and clean energy sources are not fast enough to meet the country’s growing electricity demand.

According to analysts spoken by CNBC, the focus on the development of India’s economy and infrastructure has boosted the consumption of cement and steel, an industry that relies heavily on coal.

Demand for steel in South Asia is set to increase by 8-9% in 2025, surpassing that of other economies due to the pickup of steel-intensive construction in the infrastructure and housing sectors. Data from consulting company Crisil showed.

Just like last December, India has extended its directive Because imported coal-based power plants will operate at full capacity until February 28th.

But that doesn’t mean that India is ignoring its renewable energy goals. The country has set ambitious goals Fills 50% of the electricity Through renewable energy by 2030. And it has progressed. And as of October last year, Renewable energy accounts for more than 46.3% According to India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, the country’s power generation capacity is said.

Vietnam is expected to surpass Taiwan as the world’s largest The fifth largest importer of coalafter the country’s coal imports reached Highs for over 10 years last year.

Indonesia’s Coal production It rose to about 831 million tonnes last year to notch the new high, data from the Ministry of Energy’s Ministry of Resources.

And coal’s share in the Philippine electricity mix surpassed China’s share in 2023, becoming the most coal-dependent country in Southeast Asia, reported Ember Energy.

“When coal is very cheap, there’s little focus on using energy efficiently,” said Dave Jones, a power analyst at the energy think tank Ember Energy.

Given that many major thermal coal importers, such as China, India and Vietnam, have reduced their plans for gas-based electricity accumulation, the rise in gas prices has resulted in a surge in gas prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Asian market has been a major factor. Strong coal demand is also part of it. Following on from the high gas prices that followed, Ian Roper, a product strategist at Astris Advisory Japan KK, said.

Global electricity consumption is expected to continue to increase in 2025. The IEA said.

“The world needs more energy, and now we need it,” said Rob Thummmel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. “For the global economy to grow, we need an efficient, cost-effective and reliable source of energy,” he told CNBC.

Artificial intelligence is also accelerating the global energy needs. The reports show that the electricity needs driven by data centers around the world will extend coal demand.

“The US, China and the world are in competition for the advantage of AI,” said Tim Winter, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. He explained that AI data centers are huge power users, making it difficult to eliminate reliable and affordable energy sources such as coal.

By 2030, electricity demand from data centers could exceed 35 GW, potentially more than twice the 17 GW recorded in 2022. Reports based on Moody ratings have been shown.

The government agreed 2015 Paris Climate Accort We pursue efforts to limit global heating to below 2 degrees Celsius and limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius, Emissions should be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

The others were not pessimistic, but they recognized the challenge of reaching those targets in time.

It’s looming and continues to pledge to renewable energy Global LNG supply spikes Coal import markets could guarantee that coal imports will weaken, Roper said coal consumption has been declining in Europe and Northeast Asia in recent years.

Additionally, if the country commits to a promise to triple renewables by 2030, coal could begin to see meaningful declines over the last decade, said Jones of Ember Energy.