Hormuz Strait: There are alternative routes around the chokepoint

Iran’s military capabilities had deteriorated by punishing Israel’s airstrikes that began a week and a half ago, but the Islamic Republic has been able to do so. Launch missiles at US base in Qatar on monday.

Still, the Strait of Hormuz is an important chokepoint in the global energy trade that Iran can block. Iranian lawmakers approved the closure after the US attack, but security officials have not yet signed off and the waterway remained open on Monday. Some tankers are like that Get away from the strait Anyway.

According to US Energy Information Agency (EIA), an average daily flow of 20 million barrels of oil through the straits, or about 20% of the world’s oil liquid consumption, and about a quarter of the world’s total sea and fisheries oil trade.

In addition to oil, about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade also passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year, mainly from Qatar, the EIA says.

Given the importance of energy trade, the strait closure will cause massive disruption in the market. In a note earlier this month, George Saravelos, head of FX Research German banksthe worst-case scenario (complete disruption in Iran’s oil supply and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) estimated that it could send oil prices above $120 per barrel. This represents a 56% increase over the current price of Brent crude.

Closures may involve the use of mines, patrol boats, aircraft, cruise missiles and diesel submarines. The US Navy deploys a formidable array of ships in the area, but it can take weeks or months to clear the strait.

Onathan Walter and Anibal Maiz Caceres – AFP via AFP

However, there are alternative routes that can help reduce some of the effects of closure.

For example, the state-run energy giant Saudi Aramco It operates crude oil pipelines operating east and west from Abqaiq Oil Processing Centre near the Persian Gulf to Yambu Port in the east seaaccording to the EIA.

The United Arab Emirates operates another pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz by linking land-based oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal in the Gulf of Oman.

The EIA estimates that it can use the Saudi Arabia and UAE pipelines to deflect 2.6 million barrels per day from the Strait of Hormuz.

This is compared to 5.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensate that Saudi Arabia exported the Straits last year.

Iran also has a pipeline and export terminal in the Gulf of Oman and is able to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline has a capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day, but it is much less in actual use. In the summer of 2024, Iran exported its alternative routes less than 70,000 barrels per day, and stopped loading cargo since September 2024.

In contrast, the majority of Iranian oil exports, which averaged around 1.5 million barrels per day, last year, pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Many analysts believe that Iran’s strait closure is unlikely to destroy its own economy in the process and cause a potentially catastrophic response from the US.

in Columns of columns Foreign Affairs magazine Earlier this month, Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA Persian Gulf analyst and former director of the Persian Gulf Issues on the National Security Council, said it is unlikely that Iran will close the straits.

This is because Iran soon becomes “from a sympathetic victim to a dangerous enemy in the eyes of most other countries.”

“And Tehran will have to worry about such a reckless threat to the global economy convincing Washington that it must remove the Iranian regime,” Pollack added. “That horror certainly holds for President Donald Trump, who ordered the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.”