How can Iran respond to US attacks on major nuclear sites? The option is “strategic equivalent to suicide bombing,” experts say
Up until now, airstrikes began in the Islamic Republic last week, as the fighting had mainly been involved with Iran and Israel. President Donald Trump’s decision to send bombers and cruise missiles to Iran will not only be defensive to protect Israel and American troops in the region, but will dramatically escalate the conflict and shift the United States into an offensive operation.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araguchi I said it on social media Iran “reserves all options” in defending itself.
Unless Iran wanted peace, Trump threatened more attacks, but Karim Sajadpur, a senior Carnegie Endowment Fellow for International Peace and Iran’s top expert, said it’s unlikely that the country’s leaders would take that route. However, the response could prove catastrophic.
“Many of Iran’s retaliatory options are strategic equivalent to suicide bombing,” he said. x series of posts. “They can attack US embassies and bases, attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, mine Israel’s Strait of Hormuz, lay Israeli rain missiles, but the administration may not survive the blowback.”
The energy market is ready to suffer major shocks as investors digest the meaning of US bombing Iran, the top oil exporter.
The crude prices had already skyrocketed shortly after the Israeli airstrike, and could surge even higher, depending on how Iran responded.
In a note from last week, George Saravelos, head of FX Research German banksestimated that the worst-case scenario of complete disruption in Iran’s oil supply and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $120 per barrel.
That is the Strait of Hormuz Important choke points Global energy trade flows through narrow waterways as 21% of the world’s oil liquid consumption, or about 21 million barrels per day.
Israeli attacks have also crippled Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas, and their ability to use regional allies to retaliate using regional proxies and allies has also been severely weakened.
Meanwhile, Sajadpur pointed out that Iran’s revolutionary security guards are a considerable force of a troop of 190,000, but not monolithic.
“Do they continue to postpone them to Khamenei, 86, as their commander, despite his local and nuclear ambitions now ending in a massive failure?” he asked.
Other analysts also warned of the possibility of Iran retaliation by holding Americans hostages or launching cyberattacks.
But retired General Wesley Clark, formerly the best alliance commander in Europe, told CNN he doesn’t think Iran will resort to the greatest response to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Instead, they could launch some missiles at US bases in the area or directly launch Proteran militias into Iraq to attack US forces.
“I haven’t seen a big response,” he predicted. “This Iranian regime calculates. We are very careful to understand where we want to go.”
For now, it is not yet clear that the US attack on the US will prove decisive. Sadjadpour pointed out that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believes that the project will weaken and bring more pressure.
However, he also stated that Khamenei is not a “reckless gambler” but creates tension between his survival and his rebellious instincts.
“This is an unprecedented moment in Iranian history,” added Sadjadpour. “It could settle the regime – or speed up its end mise. It could prevent nuclear Iran – or accelerate. Military attacks/humiliations strengthened dictatorship (Iran 1980) and weakened them (Milosevic, Argentina).”