JP Morgan weighs trade tensions on Eastman chemical growth outlook
JP Morgan Analyst Jeffrey J. Zekauskas has downgraded his rating Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE:EMN) From overweight to neutral Price forecasts range from $112.00 to $76.00.
On April 25, the company reported first quarter adjusted EPS of $1.91, breaking its $1.89 estimate, with $22.9 billion in revenue Missed the $2.333 billion estimate.
In the second quarter, Eastman expects an adjusted EPS of $1.70-$1.90. The consensus estimate is $2.18.
The company expects a slight sequential increase across the market in the second quarter, but less than typical due to trade uncertainty.
Additionally, second quarter revenues are expected to be adversely affected by US-China tariffs and planned maintenance increases.
Analysts say Eastman typically sees second quarter volume and revenue growth due to seasonal construction.
Zekauskas writes that tariffs have not directly affected Eastman’s business as customers are already using materials in the country.
Additionally, analysts say that sustained difficult trade conditions could increase short-term revenue risks and reduce long-term growth outlook.
Analysts estimate that the company’s specialist polymer sales are ~$340 million to China, generating $100 million in EBITDA.
Eastman forecasts cash flows of $1.2 billion from its 2025 operations, but this could be aggressive given its $167 million cash usage in the first quarter.
As a result, analysts reduced their EPS estimates to $7.40 (from $8.45) in 2025 and $7.80 (from $9.00) in 2026.
Given the current terms, analysts will be added when the stock cuts to the basecase 2025 revenue range ($7.00 to $7.75) reach ~$1.00.
Zekauskas adds that this could result in less pressure on filter towing revenues in the second half of 2025 due to the ease of the death effect.
Price ActionEMN stocks drop 0.84% at 475.20 on Monday’s last check.
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