Mira Murati’s Oxymoron reported a $2 billion seed round

Can a $2 billion funding round be a seed?

This once-pre-repeated concept went a little far on Thursday with reports that former Openai CTO Mira Murati is trying to raise for the startup thinking machine lab, with the target set at $2 billion.

Report, Business Insider Based on an anonymous source, We did not cite the rating and noted that details could change. Given that Murati’s startup was only a few months ago (she left the opening in September), it’s fair to wonder what is true, hopeful thinking, and what is real. (Thinking Machines Lab declined to comment on this story.)

Murati’s fundraising process has attracted Circus scrutiny, but little is known about what Thinking Machines Lab actually does. The startup website states that its mission is to emphasize research, multimodality and safety, “a more broad understanding of AI systems, customizable and generally capable.” What we know: Murati’s team includes coveted names from the recent past of the Open, including advisors Alec Radford and Bob McGrue and Open I co-founder John Shulman (now the Chief Scientist at Machine Lab).

If Murati raises more than $1 billion for a startup from the gate, that’s completely unprecedented. In 2024, Openai co-founder Ilya Sutskever completed a billion-dollar seed raises for his new startup, Safe Superintelligence.

Billions of seed rounds have oxygen quality, like “Jumbo Shrimp” and “Living Dead.” However, that contradiction leads to the important tensions that Murati and Satsukeiber ultimately face. To meet expectations, new things must be very large (and venture mathematics).

This is actually part of the broader tensions across the venture, and even transcends the AI ​​boom. The capital flows through the system, the valuation will increase, and the expectations for exits will also increase. And in recent years, expectations for these exits have not been met with some home run anomalies.

However, as more capital passed through the system, the seed round steadily grew over time. This is a trend highlighted by the AI ​​boom, but certainly didn’t start. According to Pitchbook, in 2015, the largest seed deal was for Femtech Pharma Startup Addyi, hitting $50 million. So far, in 2025, Pitchbook has named Lila Sciences the largest closed seed deal ($200 million). Incidentally, the Megaseed seems to be a gentle, cursed thing. Looking at the list on the Pitchbook, there were a few companies I had never heard of, and famous flops like Millet.

So it’s worth clarifying. In the volatility of the sweeping economy, $2 billion seeds could be totally crazy if true. But beyond that truth, I think theoretical megaseeds raise important questions. What does it mean to bet that businesses will thrive amidst chaos? When that happens, what does it actually look like? What we all know is an understatement. It’s not a great moment of economic security. And it’s bigger than Tech and applies directly to Tech. For example, there is evidence that Trump’s tariffs (though they may be) can be Puts very direct pressure on the AI ​​boom.

However, history shows that even in the most impossible times, knockout victory is possible. Take 2008: The biggest IPO of that famous difficult year visaeven after the depth of the financial crisis was revealed, he chose to make it public. The company jumped out on the first day of the deal, raising around $17 billion in its open market debut. In 2008, Visa had a market capitalization of $45 billion, and the literature at the time believes it focuses on the company’s payments rather than lending to resilience from the Great Recession.

Currently, 17 years later, Visa’s market capitalization remains at around $634 billion. In short, Visa survived and flourished. Because it focuses on something permanent and different. I’m not sure exactly what it looks like for AI yet, but Murati seems to have a shot to understand it.

And if Murati raises a $2 billion seed fund, we will be forced to contemplate the contradictions of the living and common AI bubble on the eve of what could be a genuine recession.

Let’s meet,

Alligarfink
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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This story was originally introduced Fortune.com