Modelo Special has become America’s number one beer. Then came the crackdown on Trump immigrants.

The Oxnard, California-based food vendor earned a living by selling a sweet drink called Agua Fresca and received a new customized street cart and $5,000 to boost his business. The check is courtesy of the Modelo Beer brand’s new product line. According to a press release from the company. “I started this business and wasn’t ready, but the amount of love and support I received from my community. They gathered behind me to support my business and my dreams,” he thanked the Modelo and said using his new cart, “I’m proud of my daughter.” Later that year, the model I created a ghost kitchen New York City commemorates Dia de los Muertos, featuring dishes such as beer citrus marinated beer citrus marinated beer, featuring beer tacos and polosads. All dishes were developed by Hispanic chefs to celebrate the legacy of their deceased loved ones.

Over the years, efforts to reach the Latino community and their wallets have paid off. In 2023, Modelo won a massive coup, becoming the most popular beer in the US, beating Bud Light. But there are signs that Trump-era immigration unrest and fear of ice attacks are changing the consumption habits of Latino consumers, writing about the troubles of brands appealing to the cohort. (Constellation Branda company that manages modelo in the US declined luckThe interview request declined to comment on the story. )

Constellation to distribute COVID and Pacifico Number 418 Fortune 500 list. The company’s online beer sales remained relatively unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2024, but shipments to retail customers remained unchanged. Approximately 1% downthe company says it is heavily driven by the decline in Modelo Special, Corona Extra and Modelo Chelada. Constellation also lowered its forecast for net beer sales growth for 2026. 0% and 3%,from 4% to 7% 2025.

Background: When ice activity heats up, Latino shoppers look like they’re out. A mid-May report from marketing data and analytics company Kantar showed that Latinos supermarket shopping fell 11.3% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Drugstore visits fell by 7.5%, while convenience store visits fell by 9.7%. This is compared to a 1.9%, 1.5% and 2.3% decline for non-Hispanic shoppers, respectively. Meanwhile, more Hispanic shoppers are turning to online shopping instead of showing up at stores. Online shopping increased 7% for this group between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.

“Modello is over 50% Hispanic in terms of demographic foundations,” said William A. Newlands, president and CEO of Constellation Brands, in a revenue call in April. “So this decline in effort has been softened in more recent semesters because we have something that is a very social gathering, something that is a very beer opportunity, and it will be key to seeing how that impact will continue or not.”

How Modelo won the first prize

In 2023, the collaboration between Budlight and trans influencer Dylan Mulbany led to an anti-trans backlash and a boycott of beer, knocking Budlight out among US consumers. This left a special opening to get the top spot for the Modelo opening.

The main reasons for brand success are It’s getting stronger Latin American consumers. Newlands says Modelo’s customer base is around 50% of Hispanics, but James A. Savia, executive vice president and president of beer, said in a May presentation of the company’s meeting, about 35% of all sales volume across all different brands go to Hispanic customers.

The company has been a growing powerhouse in the beer industry for over a decade, and Benge Steinman, president of the beer market industry, says it is a leading trading publisher in the brewing industry. luck. Beer production in the US increased by 137.9% between 2014 and 2024, Constellation increased US beer production from 13 million barrels to 31 million barrels over the course of a decade. During that same period, the company jumped to a market share of 6.1 and a market share of 15.8, earning 10 points.

“The Constellation had this powerful Hispanic tail, which is one of the key factors in its growth,” says Steinman.

Gerald Pascarelli, managing director of equity research at Needham and Company agrees. “Modero would have overtaken Bud Wright, given the growth trajectory they had,” he says. “Hispanics are usually a very good cohort to be exposed.”

Approximately 19.3% of the country identifies it as Hispanic or Latinx. According to the US Censusa group that has dramatically increased its spending output over the past decade. Economic output for this cohort has been from $1.6 trillion in 2010 to $4 trillion in 2023. US Latin GDP Report Released by California Lutheran University and UCLA Health. However, the group has seen a significant decline in spending compared to non-Hispanic shoppers, according to Kantar’s report.

“It’s not necessarily economic concerns that drive this action,” says Mary Brett Whitfield, senior vice president of Kantar Retail. “We see Hispanic shoppers being hampered by what is happening in the wider sociopolitical environment. They have a lot of tension points.”

Certainly, business is still good for the constellations. Consolidated net sales increased 2.41% in the recent fiscal year, while beer sales increased 4.6%. Analysts are bullish on the company’s outlook, and Pascarelli calls the long-term purchasing power of Latinos in the US “very advantageous.” But Constellation still needs to get through this moment, he adds, “the great pressure put on the demographic composition of their portfolio.”

How Trump’s policies are affecting business

Constellation is not the only major brand that has a close eye on how Trump’s immigration crackdown will affect businesses. Several major consumer companiesinclude Decent Dr. Pepper, Walmartand coca colapublicly discussed how immigration policies affect bottom line profits.

Newlands recently said in a presentation at the company’s meeting that it has already diversified its customer base for brands like Modelo and will continue to do so. “Modello was 80% of Hispanics a few years ago, and today it’s 55%. That’s why a lot of time, lot of energy, lot of media dollars have developed in its consumer market.

Constellation executives also say they will continue to spend their time on marketing. This is what industry watchers are important. Whitfield says it’s also important to pay attention to how shoppers buy differently.

“Part of the solution may be focusing on keeping Hispanic shoppers within the retailer’s ecosystem, rather than trying to inevitably bring Hispanic shoppers back to the store,” she says. “It could be an opportunity for retailers and brands to target app shoppers…selling (ing) through online mechanisms…I’m sure the brand will start thinking about (it).”

Constellation appears to consider this a short-term problem, with Newlands referring to “short-term headwinds” in its recent revenue call.

“We believe there will be many opportunities in our business that we believe that most of what is going on will be mitigated over time,” he said. “The question is, what is the horizon at the time? That’s a bit difficult.”