Starlink is set to receive billions with federal grants, but says it cannot handle traffic in its analysis

Starlink has hit many milestones over the past month: Satellite text messaging debut With three big mobile phone carriers, Passed 2 million subscribers In the US Released the 500th Falcon 9 Rocket.

But a New analysis We pour cold water into the good news from Penn State’s X-Lab. Researchers found that Starlink satellites could handle just 6.66 households per square mile before they began to fall below the minimum broadband speed set by the Federal Communications Commission. Last year, FCC This standard has been raised Up to 100 megabits per second, downloads, 20Mbps uploads, and latency of less than 100ms.

starlink It was an absolute thing Rural Game Changer – The first truly modern internet connection many Americans have ever had – but it wasn’t even fast enough to meet the FCC’s definition of broadband.

As the company is expected to receive billions of dollars in federal grants to add millions of new subscribers, the new analysis suggests there is a risk of taking rural America with sub-internets over the coming decades.

“What our mathematics shows is that there is a problem,” Sascha Meinrath, a researcher at X-Lab, who led the analysis, told CNET. “We raise some major concerns at the heart of the biggest public spending in broadband infrastructure in the country’s history.”

According to a June report from speed test site Ookla, Only 17% of StarLink customers Currently, I’m getting a speed of 100/20Mbps. (Disclosure: Ookla is owned by the same parent company as CNET and Ziff Davis.)

That 100/20Mbps line may not be that important for Starlink customers who are happy to have an internet connection in the end Stream Netflixbut that means $42.5 billion in federal funds will go out through the state. Broadband Equity Access and Deployment Programwas created to expand the broadband infrastructure in rural areas.

President Donald Trump’s Secretary of Commerce We fine-tuned the Bead rules in June This is an update that many people have seen to make them more “technological neutral.” Elon Musk’s Starlink distribution materials. One industry expert I spoke to at the time predicted that more than half of the bead money would go to Starlink after the change.

The original law was supported Fiber Optic Network – We have long thought about the gold standard for broadband connections, but the new guidance generally requires nations to choose the lowest cost option. However, Internet providers who want to ingest Bead Money should prove they can provide 100/20Mbps speeds to their future customers.

One of the state’s broadband directors who spoke to me while anonymous said it was a speculation game with low-earth orbital satellite providers like Starlink and Amazon’s. Project Kuiper. Fiber companies bidding on Beads projects go through a detailed physical inspection process, but in general, states have to incorporate Starlink and Amazon words, which can provide the speed they say.

“We bet this will work, but it is very clear that those who bet on Starlink are doing it blindly.

A StarLink representative did not respond to requests for comment.

Can Starlink speed keep up with millions of new customers?

Since launching in 2020, Starlink has increased its speed and added millions of customers. Ookla’s latest speed test report shows that the median download speed has almost doubled from 53.95Mbps in 2022 today to 104.71Mbps.

Starlink achieved this by significantly increasing the number of satellites in orbit. At the beginning of 2022 there were 1,761 satellites in the sky. Today, that number is 7,943. Space Object Catalog. SpaceX, which owns Starlink, says it hopes that in the end there will be 42,000 satellites in space.

Starlink’s latest speed test results (mostly) clears the FCC bar for download speed, but most Starlink subscribers do not have a minimum upload speed. Ookla data shows the median upload speed of 14.84Mbps. This is well below the 20Mbps required for bead money.

But many customers may not even notice these slow upload speeds, says Ellis Scheller, Broadband policy analyst at Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a nonpartisan science and technology policy research center.

“The reality is that everyone has a different broadband needs and internet usage needs,” Scheller told CNET.

“If you have these arbitrary definitions like over 20, it probably provides sufficient capabilities for the needs of real broadband consumers, leading to situations where certain technologies are not considered unfeasible.”

It is true that most of us download far more than uploaded. The average US household consumes approximately 48GB of upstream data each month, compared to the downstream 616GB. Latest OpenVault Reports. That said, upstream data consumption is growing much faster than downstream, as video calls, cloud backups, IoT devices and more become more important parts of the home internet mix.

With Zoom, HD video calls only require an upload speed of around 3Mbps, so one StarLink connection can theoretically hold five different video conferences. However, researchers have also documented “potential spikes” caused by handoffs to different satellites when orbiting the Earth.

“When a user is assigned to another spacecraft, the delay increases significantly. The worst case scenario for this dataset is shifted from 30 to 80 to 80 ms.” I’m writing Geoff Hustona scientist studying internet infrastructure at the Asia-Pacific Network Information Center.

80ms latency isn’t ideal – for example, it’s a rather disastrous online gaming experience, but there’s a fair amount of wiggling room beneath the FCC’s 100ms benchmark. It’s still quite high to prevent Starlink customers from fully participating in the virtual world that many of us take for granted.

“If I’m scrolling through the website online, I might not notice it. If you’re trying to do a live telemedicine appointment, it could really be a problem,” Meinrath said.

However, most StarLink customers don’t seem to care much. in Customer Satisfaction Survey Filmed a year ago, Starlink customers reported more outages than customers with Fiber Internet, but were far more pleased with the overall service.

That’s because Starlink is far better than the internet that most rural Americans had before.

Will Starlink improve in the future?

That’s the $42.5 billion question. SpaceX owner Elon Musk length history They say there is an improvement in Starlink right Around it corner. the First Application to FCC In 2016, we promised Gigabit Speed to all users. Last November, Gwynne Shotwell, president of SpaceX I even predicted A speed of 2 Gigabits per second is not out of the question. But Meinrath says these rely on misleading indicators.

“I’ve just tallied all the transceivers on every satellite and watched them over and over again in various Starlink documents of the amount of throughput capacity. “Each tire can be 100 mph each, which doesn’t mean my car will be 400.”

Starlink defenders will insist on the company I have it Withdrawal of an impressive one-two feat: it doubled its speed in the US in two years, adding over 5 million customers worldwide. Is it unreasonable to think that if we reach the target of 42,000 satellites, it can connect a considerable chunk? 7 million houses Is that bead dollar specified for?

“We’re not talking about Leo’s capabilities today. We’ve been talking about Leo’s capabilities over four years. If the pace of current progress in Leo’s roadband is an indicator, it’s far more than it is today,” Scheller said.

Scheller pointed out several reasons for his optimism about Starlink taking on new bead users. Friendly FCC rules About the wireless spectrum used by Starlink and the new satellites 10 times the downstream capacity of the previous generation. Not everyone is that sure.

“‘When the next iteration occurs, everything is fixed.’ Yeah, I’ve been listening to this for five years now. do not have It’s been fixed,” Meinrath said.

Things to consider before signing up for StarLink

Starlink is a great rural internet option. Especially if you’re in one of the places you can get $349 Satellite Cuisine Free – However, there are some limitations to keep in mind.

One requires a clear view of the sky. Objects such as tree branches, poles, and roofs can disrupt connections. Before you order anything, use the Starlink app Check for interference That may affect your service.

Another thing to note is how many other StarLink customers you have in your area. At my address Seattlefor example, due to the high usage in the area, there is currently a “demand extra charge” of $1,000. That’s because Previously $500indicating that Starlink capacity issues are not disappearing anytime soon.

“What we’ve seen over and over is that there are benefits to being a first mover to join Starlink. If you’re the first individual in your area, you’ll get great service,” says Meinrath. “The problem is when it gets busy, that is, when it becomes another user. Starlink doesn’t seem to be able to provide the billing or advertised speed that it says can provide. It’s overwhelmingly documented.”

If you can get cable, fiber or 5G Home Internet Your home provider, I go with one of them every time beyond StarLink. (You can check what is available by entering your address FCC broadband map. )

If none of these options are available, StarLink is your best bet. If you have six or more other homes that use it within a square mile, know that you probably won’t get standard FCC broadband speeds technically.