Today’s S&P 500 Index ($spx) (SPY) fell -0.27%, Dow Jones Industrial Index ($dowi) (DIA) fell -0.48%, and Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) fell -0.25%.
After starting the day strongly, three main inventory indexes will turn red during the afternoon trading session.
Commerce Secretary Lutonic said the 90-day extension of the trade ceasefire with China is likely to be the result of ongoing negotiations between the two countries in Stockholm. In today’s US economic news, Jun Advance Goods’ trade deficit has been unexpectedly reduced to $86 billion against the expansion, a positive factor in GDP in the second quarter.
Jun Jolts job openings fell more than expected, but the consumer confidence index rose more than expected in July.
Union Pacific has agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern for around $85 billion, or about $320 per share. Baker Hughes also acquired the charting industry for $9.6 billion, or about $210 per share.
Dow Jones Industrial’s weight has fallen -4% on Merck & Co after saying that Gardasil vaccine shipments will be extended to China by at least the end of the year. UnitedHealth Group also reported a weaker Q2 adjusted EPS than expected, down more than -4% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS below consensus.
The US has risen by the S&P CoreLogic Composite-20 Home Price Index, weaker than expected at 2.79% Y/Y, +2.91%, 1. The smallest pace increase in 75 years.
US Jun Jolts job openings fell from weaker than expected – 275,000 to 7.437 million.
Conference Committee The US Consumer Trust Index for July rose from +2.0 to 97.2, a stronger rise than expected of 96.0.
This week’s market will focus on news of new trade contracts until Friday’s deadline. The two-day FOMC meeting begins today, and the Fed is expected to change its Fed fund’s target range from 4.25% to 4.50% when the meeting closes on Wednesday. Also, on Wednesday, the employment change in ADP July is expected to rise to +80,000. Finally, on Wednesday, second quarter GDP is expected to expand by +2.4% (Q/Q annually), with the Q2 Core PCE Price Index expected to be easier from +3.5% in Q1 to +2.3%. On Thursday, the first weekly unemployment claims are expected to increase from 6,000 to 223,000, with the second quarter employment cost index expected to rise by 0.8%. Additionally, JUN’s personal expenditure is expected to rise at +0.4%m/m, while JUN’s personal income is expected to rise at +0.3%m/m. Additionally, the Jun Core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to rise to +0.3%m/m and +2.7%y/y. Finally, on Thursday, Chicago PMI is expected to increase from +1.6 to 42.0 in July. On Friday, non-farm salaries are expected to rise by +109,000 in July, with unemployment rates expected to rise by 4.2% from +0.1. Also, average hourly revenues are expected for July: +0.3%m/m and +3.8%y/y. Additionally, the July ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase from +0.2 to 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan July Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to be reconfirmed at 61.8.
The market is waiting for President Trump’s August 1 trade deal deadline to avoid high tariffs. On July 16, Trump announced he would send customs letters to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rate is either 10% or 15%. Last Wednesday, Trump said, “We have simple tariffs on a straight 15% to 50%.”
Federal Funds Futures prices are discounting the possibility of a rate reduction of -25 bp at 3% and 64% at the TUE/WED FOMC meeting on September 16th-17th.
This week marks the busiest week of the revenue season, with 38% of stocks reporting quarterly revenues in the S&P 500 are twice the amount reported last week. The performance of the epic seven members is head-on and centered, with Microsoft and Meta platforms reported on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon.com report on Thursday. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the S&P 500’s revenues show that second quarter revenues are better than expected at +2.8%Y/Y. Approximately one-third of S&P 500 companies report, so about 82% exceeded their profit estimates.
Today’s overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.92%. China’s Shanghai Composite has been closed to +0.33%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 has closed -0.79%.
interest rate
September 10th T-Notes (Znu25) is +11 ticks today. T-note yield over the decade has decreased by 4.356% from -5.4 bp. The T-Notes are moving higher than today with some short covers ahead of the results of the two-day FOMC meeting that began today. T-Notes extended its profit after Jun Jolts job openings fell more than expected.
The profit for T-Notes is supply pressure. The Treasury will auction off two-year floating rate notes of $30 billion and seven-year T-notes of $44 billion. Also, the strength of stocks today reduced the safe haven demand for T-notes.
Today’s European government bond yields are mixed. Germany’s foreign yield over the past 10 years was 2.691%, an increase of +0.2 bp. The 10-year British gold leaf yield fell from a weekly high of 4.681%, down 4.617% from -3.0 bp.
The ECB’s June inflation expectations eased to +2.6% from 2.8% in May. The ECB’s June inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.4% since May.
The swap is discounting the 15% chance if the ECB cuts -25 bp rates at its policy meeting on September 11th.
US Stockmover
The strength of chipstock today is providing support for a wider market. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has increased by more than +4%, while Marvell Technology (MRVL) has exceeded +2%. Additionally, Micron Technology (MU), Texas Instruments (TXN), Semiconductor Corp (ON), Broadcom (AVGO), NVIDIA (NVDA), LAM Research (LRCX), and NXP Semiconductor NV (NXPI) exceed +1%.
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is up over +26% after US regulators recommended that patients who can walk should be allowed to allow company gene therapy again.
Amkor Technology (AMKR) rose more than +21% after reporting net sales in the second quarter that was better than the consensus of over $1.51 billion, with net sales in the third quarter ranging from $1.88 billion to $1.98 billion, well above $1.76 billion.
Chart Industries (GTLS) is up more than 16% after Baker Hughes acquired the company for $13.6 billion, or about $210 per share.
Corning (GLW) has reported a 60-cent second-core EPS above the consensus of 57 cents, predicting a 63-cent 67 cent Q3-core EPS and is up over +11% to lead the winners in the S&P 500.
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) rose more than +8% to lead the Nasdaq 100 Gainers after surpassing the consensus of second quarter revenues of $12.8 billion and $1.25 billion, up over 8% to lead the Nasdaq 100 Gainers, up from $523 billion to $523 billion to $523 billion from $523 billion to $523 billion from $525 billion to $5.21 billion.
CBRE Group (CBRE) has increased by more than +8% after reporting its second-quarter revenue at $9.75 billion, stronger than the $9.43 billion consensus, increasing its full-year core EPS estimate to $6.10-$6.20 from previous estimates of $5.80-$6.10.
Carrier Global (CARR) has fallen more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year free cash flows of between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion.
The United Parcel Service (UPS) has fallen by more than -9% after quoting guidance this year, citing “current macroeconomic uncertainty.”
Brown & Brown (Bro) fell more than -8%, at 3.60%, weaker than the +5.63% consensus after reporting an uptick in organic revenue in the second quarter.
Whirlpool (WHR) has dropped more than -11% after reporting second-quarter net sales to below the $3.77 billion consensus, reducing its full-year EPS forecast from around $6.00 to $8.00 from previous estimates, with a consensus well below $8.78.
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) has fallen by more than -5% after reporting second-quarter net sales of $3.95 billion and weaker than the $40 billion consensus.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) has fallen by more than -5% after forecasting a Q3-adjusted EPS of $5.55 to $5.65 and then weaker than the $5.84 consensus.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has dropped more than -4% to lead the Dow Jones Industrials losers after reporting a Q2 adjusted EPS that is weaker than the $4.59 consensus, well below the $20.40 consensus, at least $16 full-year adjusted EPS.
Merck & Co. (MRK) has fallen by more than -3% after saying that Gardasil vaccine shipments will extend the suspension of shipments to China at least by the end of the year.
Revenue Report (7/29/2025)
American Tower Corp (AMT), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Boeing Co/The (BA), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), BXP Inc (BXP), Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR), Carrier Global Corp (Carr), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), Corning Inc (glw), dte Energy Co (ecolab), ecolab, Property Trust Inc (ESS), Expanse Energy Corp (EXE), Hubbell Inc (Hubb), Incyte Corp (Incy), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Merck & Co Inc (MRK), Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ), Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPG GAMBLE/PPGEPRINS (PG), Regency Centers Corp (Reg), Republic Services Inc (RSG), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK), Starbucks Corp (SBux), Sysco Corp (SYY), Teradyne Inc (Ter) (UNH), Visa Inc (V).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no position (directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published barchart.com
