Tesla’s shock Q2 delivery surprise could have been driven by an unexpected market, Wall Street is baffled
After Tesla shocked the market with quarterly sales on Wednesday, investors are hunched into their brains trying to figure out where tens of thousands of cars suddenly appeared.
The sign indicates that a small market may be acting as an outlet valve. For example, for off-roading of cars built at Tesla’s Berlin factory, as many nearby European markets have done effectively. Close the brand door By Reputation damage given by CEO Elon Musk.
So Wall Street is asking if the sudden surge in delivery last month was a major derivation from a country that is not known to be Tesla’s main source of demand. Almost 60% of Tesla’s first half sales in Türkiye were generated in June alone.
“Delivery that exceeded expectations could have been well received,” a UBS analyst wrote in a research note on Thursday, but “there are “questions” about where these vehicles sell (probably not typical areas).
Turkey reported 7,235 Tesla sales and a market share of 7.7% in June. BEV penetration hits a new record of 27.4%, with Tesla having 28.2% of this segment. 🇹🇷
Market share is 1016% above 703 basis points or 3 months of subsequent average 0.7%
Tesla’s second bestselling brand
•… pic.twitter.com/0bduymimgp– Roland Pilcher (@piloly) July 2, 2025
Intermediate turkey And Norway and Tesla sold ten times more cars they went to in Germany last month in both of these countries. It is only half the size of the latter, even when combined, despite the total sales of the passenger car sales in the aforementioned duo.
This surge in volume from unlikely locations helped Tesla Nail Market Consensus 384,000 cars were delivered in the second quarter on Wednesday, bringing stock up 5%. Many experts following the auto market closer than sell-side equity analysts expected that the number would approach 360,000 vehicles. Lack of fresh products.
However, part of the reason why Tesla is surprised is the lack of transparency from Tesla compared to other automakers. It publishes one delivery per quarter, offering only a split of volume (combination models 3 and Y) and luxury, grouping S, X and Cybert Ruck.
Tesla did not respond to the request luck For comments.
“It’s just a banana.”
7,235 vehicles for sale in Türkiye last month Tesla has become the third most popular brand Renault and Volkswagen. For comparison, only 11,534 Teslas were sold in all last year, according to the local association ODMD.
in Norway is EV-friendlyTesla sold 5,646 vehicles June Despite the demand for cars in Scandinavian countries, Germany’s size is 1/20. The mask brand is very strong, and it was described alone for each of the three cars sold in Norway last month.
“It’s just a banana,” said Erin Keating, a Cox car analyst. luck.
This may be a sign that these markets are acting as garbage dumps for cars built at Tesla’s Berlin plant. In Germany, the largest automobile market on the continent, Tesla volume sank 60% to 1,860 units in June, 58% in the first half.
However, such an approach makes it difficult to maintain consistently large amounts of maintenance, as small markets like Norway saturate faster. This means Tesla could be forced to end up halting production in Berlin due to lack of demand.
Photos are similarly tough in other more established markets like the US.
“In the US, we see them falling sharply,” Keating explained. “They continue to lose their share quite aggressively. The only thing they do for them now is that they are not at risk of tariffs because their cars are Americans.”