The excessive achievement of carrier cancellations indicates an increase in market vulnerability

This week’s chart: Career details Net cancellation – USA Sonar: CDNR.USA

Career Net Cancellation (which measures the number of truckload operators (companies) leaving the industry, but remained out of season throughout the first half of the year. The current pace of exits is 16% higher than in the same period in 2024. The issuance of new authorities is increasing this year, but they came across by chance in recent weeks as new enforcement actions and processes could create barriers to additional entries.

The US truckload market is a challenging landscape for many airlines and 3PLS, and is still too low to support stable business operations. There have been slight improvements over the past few years, but pushing enough height to support current capacity levels was not enough. Many structural problems persist, increasing the risk of dropping to very low levels of capacity.

Bid Rejection Rate (On the other) – The frequency of carriers denying package capacity requests has been steadily increasing since May 2023. This trend indicates a decrease in carrier availability. In weaker markets, rising rejection rates in down markets have more weight, as airlines are generally willing to accept freight.

The spot rate (NTIL), traditionally used to measure the health of truck markets, follows a similar upward trajectory. However, rates can be a noisy metric, as distance fluctuations and inflation costs inputs can distort the image. Spot rates are up year-on-year, but operating costs are rising. Diesel prices have fallen and offer rare relief. (Note: Fuel costs will be excluded from the chart rate index.)

In May, the president issued new guidance Implementing English proficiency At the state level of drivers. Although details of the enforcement remain unknown, the move could create additional hurdles for newcomers.

Furthermore, efforts to crack down on CDL scam A more rigorous screening process has been enhanced by further increasing the bar for future drivers.

Soft volume (otvi) This is about 10-15% decrease compared to last year. Much of this decline is attributed to mode shifts (particularly long-range cargo travels intermodal), but the latest trends suggest that overall demand could also be softer.

Beyond the obvious issues of low demand that undermine core businesses, inconsistent volumes make it difficult for carriers to maintain a balanced network, and often takes months to reorganize.