Today’s S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.20%, Dow Jones Industrial Index ($dowi) (DIA) is up +0.01%, and NASDAQ 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.46%.
The Federal Reserve has chosen to maintain benchmark interest rates despite opposing public criticism from President Donald Trump and votes from two senior officials. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-2 votes to avoid changing the rate of federal funds in the range of 4.25%-4.5%. This is a key rate that affects the overall economy’s borrowing costs.
Earlier in the day, changes in ADP employment in July increased more than expected, marking the biggest increase in four months. Additionally, economic activity recovered after GDP increased more than expected in the second quarter. Additionally, Microsoft and Meta platforms are set to release revenues after it ends today.
Changes in ADP employment in the US July increased by +104,000, stronger than expected at +76,000, the biggest increase in four months. Additionally, changes in JUN ADP employment have been revised upward from -33,000 to -23,000 previously reported.
US Q2 GDP rose, stronger than expected at 3.0% (Q/Q annual), +2.6%. The Q2 Core PCE Price Index rose at +2.5%Q/Q, stronger than expected +2.3%Q/Q.
US Jun unexpectedly dropped by -0.8%m/m, weaker than expected, with an increase of A +0.2%m/m.
The US MBA mortgage applications fell -3.8% for the week ending July 25th, with the purchase mortgage subindex falling 5.8% and the refinance subindex falling -1.1%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 6.83% to -1 bp, from 6.84% in the previous week.
In its quarterly refund announcement today, the Treasury said it hopes to change the size of its note and bond auctions “at least in the next few quarters,” and will rely on the shortest securities to fund the federal deficit until at least 2026.
In the latest tariff news, President Trump said today that he would impose a 25% tariff rate on India from August 1st, suggesting that an additional penalty be added to energy purchases from Russia.
This week’s market will focus on news of new trade contracts until Friday’s deadline. If the FOMC meeting concludes later today, the Fed is expected to not change its Fed fund’s target range from 4.25% to 4.50%. On Thursday, the first weekly unemployment claims are expected to increase from 6,000 to 223,000, with the second quarter employment cost index expected to rise by 0.8%. Additionally, JUN’s personal expenditure is expected to rise at +0.4%m/m, while JUN’s personal income is expected to rise at +0.2%m/m. Additionally, the Jun Core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to rise to +0.3%m/m and +2.7%y/y. Finally, on Thursday, Chicago PMI is expected to increase from +1.6 to 42.0 in July. On Friday, non-farm salaries are expected to rise by +109,000 in July, with unemployment rates expected to rise by 4.2% from +0.1. Also, average hourly revenues are expected for July: +0.3%m/m and +3.8%y/y. Additionally, the July ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase from +0.2 to 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan July Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to be reconfirmed at 61.8.
The market is waiting for President Trump’s August 1 trade deal deadline to avoid high tariffs. On July 16, Trump announced he would send customs letters to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rate is either 10% or 15%. Last Wednesday, Trump said, “We have simple tariffs on a straight 15% to 50%.”
Futures prices for federal funds are discounting the possibility of a -25 bp rate reduction at 2% at today’s FOMC meeting at the next meeting on September 16-17.
This week marks the busiest week of the revenue season, with 38% of stocks reporting quarterly revenues in the S&P 500 are twice the amount reported last week. The revenue results for the epic seven-member members will be front and center, reporting after Microsoft and Meta platforms are closed today and Apple and Amazon.com report on Thursday. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the S&P 500’s revenues show that second quarter revenues are better than expected at +2.8%Y/Y. Approximately one-third of S&P 500 companies report, so about 82% exceeded their profit estimates.
Today’s overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.33%. China’s Shanghai composite was formed at 9.5 months high and closed +0.17%. Japan’s Nikkei stocks fell -0.05%.
interest rate
September 10th T-Notes (Znu25) is today -8 tickdown. T-note yield over the past 10 years has increased by +4.8 bp, increasing by 4.368%. SEP T-Notes has fallen from a 3.5-week high today, with 10-year T-Note yields rising from a 3.5-week low of 4.313%, up from a 3.5-week low. After changes in ADP employment rose more than expected in July, T-Notes today benefited early on in signs of strength in the US labor market. T-Notes extended its losses after Q2 GDP expanded more than expected. A short cover ahead of today’s FOMC meeting results is to limit the loss of T-notes.
Today’s European government bond yields are moving today. Germany’s foreign yields for the decade have fallen by 2.707% from -0.1 bp. The 10-year British gold leaf yield fell -2.5 bp to 4.608%.
Eurozone Q2 GDP rose +0.1%Q/Q and +1.4%y/y, stronger than expectations of unchanged m/m and +1.2%y/y.
The eurozone’s economic confidence in July rose to +1.6 to a five-month high of 95.8, stronger than expectations of 94.5.
The swap is discounting the 13% chance if the ECB cuts -25 bp rates at its policy meeting on September 11th.
US Stockmover
Teradyne (TER) has increased by more than +18% to lead the gainer on the S&P 500 after reporting a 57-cent Q2 adjusted EPS. This is better than the 54 cent consensus.
After Morgan Stanley raised its stock target from $73 to $80, Marvell Technology (MRVL) has risen by more than +9% to lead the Nasdaq 100 Gainers.
VF Corp (VFC) has grown more than +11% after reporting its first net revenue of $1.8 billion and then reported it was well above the $1.7 billion consensus.
Generac Holdings (GNRC) is better than the $1.03 billion consensus after reporting second quarter net sales at $1.06 billion.
Humana (HUM) increased by more than +5% after reporting its second-quarter adjusted ESP strongly than the $6.27 consensus, up from an estimated $16.25 of $16.25 to $17.00.
Electronic Arts (EA) surpasses the $1.24 billion consensus after reporting its first quarter reservations of $100 billion.
Etsy (Etsy) outperforms the $2.777 billion consensus after reporting $2.81 billion in gross product sales in the second quarter.
Hershey (HSY) has risen by more than +2% after reporting second quarter net sales of $2.6 billion and reported stronger than the $2.52 billion consensus.
Checkpoint Software (CHKP) is above -11% after Q2-adjusted EPS reported an EPS of $2.37 to $2.37.
Idex Corp (IEX) has fallen over -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast from $8.10-$8.45 to $7.85-$7.95 from previous estimates.
The old Dominion Cargo Line (ODFL) has fallen over -8% to lead the losers on the Nasdaq 100 after reporting its $1.27 Q2 EPS to under $1.29.
Trane Technologies (TT) has declined by more than -7% after reporting its second-quarter net revenues of $5.75 billion to less than $5.77 billion.
Mondelez International (MDLZ) cites rising cocoa costs down more than -6% after reporting its second quarter organic revenues -3.4% lower than expected -1.83%.
Entegris Inc. (ENTG) has dropped by more than -6% after reporting its Q2 adjusted total amount below the 45.1% consensus to below 44.6%.
GE Healthcare Technologies (GEHC) has fallen by more than -6% after CEO Saccharo said in a conference call that he expects “softness” in the China region later this year.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has fallen by more than -5% after agreeing to buy Cyberark with $25 billion in cash and stock.
Seagate Technology (STX) has fallen by more than -5% after forecasting its first quarter revenue of $150 million to $2.55 billion and is weaker than the $2.52 billion consensus.
Revenue Report (7/30/2025)
Albemarle Corp (ALB), Align Technology Inc (ALGN), Allstate Corp/The (All), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Electric Power Co Inc (AEP), American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), Avalonbay Communities Inc (AVB), Bunge Global SA (BG), Ch Robinson Worldwide Technology (CHTSH), COMIZANT SOLT, Dexcom Inc (DXCM), eBay Inc (eBay), Entergy Corp (ETR), Equinix Inc (EQIX), Everest Group Ltd (EG), Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR), F5IV (FFIV), Fair Isaac Corp (FICO), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), Ford Motor Corp (FE), Fortive Corp (FERMN LTD, FERTIVE CORP, FERTIVE CORP, FERTIVE CORP, FERTIVE CORP, FERTIVE CORP, FERTIVE CORP, FERTIVE CORP, FERTIVE CORP, Healthcare Technologies Inc (GEHC), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), Hershey Co/The (HSY), Hologic Inc (Holx), Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST), Humana Inc (HUM), IDEX CORP (IEX), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Invitation Homes Inc (INVH) (LRCX), Meta Platforms Inc (META), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL), Prudential Financial Inc (PRU), PTC INC (PTC (PTC), QUAPRCOMM INC (QUTCM), SMURFIT Technologies PLC (TT), Tyler Technologies Inc (Tyl), UDR Inc (UDR), Ventas Inc (VTR), Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK), VICI Properties Inc (VICI), WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC), Western Digital Corp (WDC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no position (directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published barchart.com
