What’s important in today’s US and global markets
Mike Dolan, Editor, Financial Industry, Financial Market
US stocks took hearts from the benign behavior of the Federal Reserve this week, comforting them with Chairman Jerome Powell’s relatively optimistic views on the potential inflationary effects of rising trade tariffs and the announcement of a sharp slowdown on the Fed’s balance sheet.
Today we will discuss not only the reaction of President Donald Trump, but also the impact of the Fed’s statement. And it will use the Fed to assess the health of the country to consider how it could be affected by the fear of a 401ks decline in retirements. This and more market analysis can be found below.
Today’s market
*The Federal Reserve has shown that it is not a rush to cut US interest rates, bringing out the rage of President Donald Trump.
*Trump held a sit-in with Top Oil Executives at the White House on Wednesday, planning to boost domestic energy production amid crude prices and the looming world trade war.
*A White House summary seen by Reuters shows Trump signed a long-standing executive order on Thursday, with the aim of closing the Department of Education.
* Eli Lilly has launched its hit diabetes and weight loss pill Murujaro in India, the world’s most populous country.
*European Union leaders are committed to doing more to compete with more military muscles in the face of US tariffs, other economic challenges, other economic challenges and doubts about Washington’s future defense support.
Parade Central Bank
Following Thursday’s Global Central Bank Conference parade, attention will be focused on planned tariff hikes on April 2nd.
Wall Street stock futures earned Wednesday overnight, with Treasury yields falling to news of a quantitative tightening of two interest rate cuts this year and slowing down Fed policymakers’ revised forecasts. Futures now pushed the odds of the third cut to 50%.
The dollar has risen against most currencies, probably as traders position themselves for tariff hikes next month. The currency movement may also reflect some of the eurozone and eurozone stock profits after Germany’s recent euphoria of fiscal shocks.
Still, everything, the Fed’s actions were almost overwhelming. Growth forecasts were reduced compared to those made three months ago, but inflation outlook increased. And the balance sheet manipulation was actually less than the complete pause many people in the market had expected.
Perhaps the most interesting element was President Donald Trump’s intervention after the meeting.
“U.S. tariffs will shift the path to the economy (easy!) and do the right thing,” his comments ended in a relatively long period of time that has not criticised Fed policy.
Treasury Secretary Scott Becent has sought to alleviate fears of the Fed’s challenge to operating independence, but analysts in Washington pointed to the firing of two Democrats this week as a test of independence for all institutions, including the Fed.
And now we’re heading to today’s deep diving. Here we look at how this year’s Wall Street stocks will affect future retirees’ decisions about when they will suspend work.
Wall Street Jolt could jog unemployment rate
In another potential feedback loop from lower inventory to the real economy, some economists are now afraid of the risk of delaying the long-term US unemployment retirement.
One of the many reasons cited in recent years for the sustained unemployment rate in the US is the peak wave of Americans reaching retirement age and leaving the workforce. Some left early in the pandemic, while others were encouraged to wash away their savings pots from their long-standing stock prices.
But that decision has never affected more people than this year.
According to the Washington-based Lifetime Income Nonprofit Alliance, 4.18 million American workers reached retirement age in 2025, with an average of 11,400 Americans turning 65 every day. And that record is set to be held for 20 years until a larger “millennial” cohort begins to travel the line.
As is well known, many of these retirees do not store enough cash. There are acres reports of insufficient retirement savings and the questionable feasibility of Social Security. Certainly, the entire industry is shaped around encouraging people to save more.
Alliance data shows that over half of the baby boomers, who turned 65 between 2024 and 2030, have an average of less than $250,000. And most can expect to live another 20 years.
Given this reality, this year’s jarring shakeout at Wall Street Stock Index could force some retirees to stick to the workforce.
Michael Reid, US economist at RBC Capital Markets, believes that permanent stock market retreats can have a meaningful impact on the labor market and unemployment calculations.
“If we see a stock market revision, it will not only affect spending from that cohort, but we also talk about the risk of rising unemployment forecasts. Some of those people may delay retirements for a year or two.”
Employers who trade retired workers add nothing to their overall salary growth, but high retirement rates removed people from the entire workforce, suppressed participation rates and thus the calculation of unemployment.
With extensions, delays in retirement could potentially support the available workforce and unemployment rates for certain levels of pay.
Part-time and participation
Of course, multiple cross-currents complicate the employment picture. This includes new immigration restrictions that have played a key role in expanding the workforce in recent years.
Concerns about workers shortages are partly due to immigrant curbs, and therefore are considered high labor participation. Future retirees rarely meet factory roles or unskilled manual work, but are often featured by recent immigrants.
High-frequency data on the size of US retirements is elusive, but workforce participation has been declining recently, hitting a two-year low of 62.4% in February, still below pre-pandemic levels.
And at just 4.1%, the unemployment rate has fallen below 4.5% for over three years.
However, other measures of unemployment are less rosy. The broader measures, including those who wanted to work but gave up on searching and part-time workers because they couldn’t find full-time employment, surged to 8% in their employment report last month – the highest since 2021.
It is unknown how much the part-time work calculations include retirees.
General anxiety is rising again in the economy – not all hard data yet, judging from business and household surveys. And how much anxiety depends on how much of the changed planning, decision making and investments depend on the trajectory of government policy from here.
Anecdote at least, Reuters reports show that many older workers are well inconsistent by worrying about stopping jobs due to a combination of government upheavals and stock market volatility.
Of course, stock prices and savings pots are just one of many factors in this mix. In addition, stock revisions have been made immediately in the past.
However, long-term market cuts from such a noble level could have a greater impact on the ageing US population than in the past. The Federal Reserve and others are making a twist to read the job market.
The chart of the day
Would you like to go back to Zirp? Most central banks argue that monetary policy norms have changed since the pandemic hit, the destruction of geopolitical alliances and the bursting of global supply chains. They argue that a return to zero interest rate policy ten years after the bank’s clash in 2008 is much less likely to be a more inflationary world. However, the Swiss National Bank may have missed the memo, cutting its main policy rate to just 0.25% on Thursday. They also frequently refuse to rule out reversing negative interest rates when necessary.
Events to watch today
*Bank of England’s policy decision
* US Weekly Jobless claims, 4th quarter checking accounts, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Survey in March, Existing Home Sales in February. Canada February Producer Price
*Tiff McClem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, says. European Central Bank policymakers Philip Lane, Klaas Knott and Robert Holtzmann speak
*European Union Summit in Brussels
*US corporate revenue: FedEx, Micron Technology, Nike, Accenture, Renard, Dardan Restaurant, Jabil, Factset
*The US Treasury sells 10-year inflation protection securities
The opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News. Reuters News is committed to integrity, independence and freedom from bias under the principle of trust.
(Edited by Mike Dolan, by Stephen Coates)
