The Israeli-Iran ceasefire represents a tactical break that does not perpetuate peace

Headlines may declare a ceasefire, but let’s be clear: Israeli-Iran War It’s not the end. What we are witnessing is not peace, but a tactical break. Guns may be temporarily silent, but war lives on with motivation, method and mindset.

Don’t be fooled. The Israeli-Iran ceasefire represents a tactical break that does not perpetuate peace

president Donald Trump’s On June 23, the announcement of a “complete and complete ceasefire” between Israel and Iran led to a welcome pause in the fatal 12-day escalation. However, his own remarks in the period following time, including the way to the NATO summit, betrayed the unstable nature of the agreement and the volatility of the players involved.

Israel retreats from heavy strikes in Iran and maintains a ceasefire after Trump pressure

Just before boarding Air Force 1, Trump uttered the pointy public responsibilities: “Calm down, Israel!” he warned the Prime Minister. Benajamin Netanyahu A strike against Iran after an effective time in the ceasefire constitutes a violation. His words reflect not only the diplomatic urgency, but also the vulnerability of the arrangements he has published.

Still, within hours, both Iran and Israel reportedly began limited retaliatory actions. Visibly annoyed, Trump criticized both sides for breaking his faith. “They don’t know what they’re doing.” He added: “I have to calm Israel now,” highlighting the extent to which our pressure-mutual trust was not a linchpin of the early survival of the ceasefire.

There’s the truth: the war is not over. I simply shifted the form.

Is there a war between Israel and Iran? Only when “war” is defined in the narrowest kinetic terminology. However, if war is understood as a conflict of will, ideology, and strategic objectives, this war continues under another banner.

There is no treaty, no verification regime, nor mutual recognition of legitimacy between the two states. Iran continues to deny it Israel’s right to existAnd Israel sees Iran’s nuclear program and its regional proxy networks as existential threats. Formal halt of hostility requires more than silence. A solution is needed. We are not near it.

Certain fire: Can a pause in a battle lead to lasting peace where conflict has become the norm?

To understand why this war is not over, consider the strategic goals of each side. The Israeli campaign was aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. In particular, it is the Fordow underground enrichment site. Although it was a success in the short term, it did not rule out ideological commitment to Iran’s scientific knowledge or nuclear capabilities. Tehran still owns technical talent, raw materials and, most dangerously, the motivation to rebuild and accelerate its weapons programme.

Iran’s retaliation missile strike It was held as a symbolic warning at bases in Israel and US in Qatar and Iraq (although mostly intercepted). More importantly, Tehran signaled its ability to retain its ability to collide deeply with the region. Tel Aviv wasn’t the only message. It was for Washington, Riyadh and the world.

Timeline: Trump’s Israeli-Iran ceasefire will almost collapse a few hours after its announcement

Behind the scenes, a shadow war continues. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards still train Iraqi militias with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Syriaand directs proxy war through Houthis in Yemen. Israeli airstrikes in Dimascus and elsewhere in Syria have been sustained, albeit in a lower form. Cyber ​​operations, drone monitoring, and intelligence stargeting are completely vigilant. These are not postwar conditions. These are indicators of unresolved evolving conflicts.

Even the diplomacy surrounding a ceasefire reflects its vulnerability. The agreement was mediated through indirect channels without official joint communique, UN approval, and a subsequent roadmap. Iran has not remarried to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel, of course, retains its right to strike again when necessary. The rhetoric is cooled, but the posture remains hardened.

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And then there is the political reality. Leaders of both countries face domestic constituencies skeptical of compromise. Tehran hardliners view the suspension as a pause to reload it, and it is not a step towards settlement. In Jerusalem, the Israeli masses are widely supportive of preemptive measures against nuclear-armed enemies. There is no political incentive or strategic trust on either side to separate from conflict.

So the war ended? Only when “war” is defined in the narrowest kinetic terminology. However, if war is understood as a conflict of will, ideology, and strategic objectives, this war continues under another banner.

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The international community should not confuse this quietness with peace. Rather, it must be prepared for what comes next: the sustained period of secret conflict, local volatility, and the constant risk of open wars returning with almost warning. Diplomats must act urgently, not naive. Military Leader You need to maintain alerts. And in political leaders, especially Washington, they are destabilizing to resist the temptation to declare victory before the conflict is truly settled.

Trump’s visible madness and his dull warnings serve as reminders. This ceasefire is less secure than the temperament or tactics of the enemy it restrains. The Israeli-Iran war is not over. Then we only entered the most dangerous stage.

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