The market behaves as if Europe had pulled wool in Trump’s eyes

One theory is that one of the two conditions is trading as if it turns out to be true.

• New EU deals are largely unchanged, as they consist of things that hardly happen, or were happening anyway, like Japanese counterparts.
• The US Supreme Court finds Trump does not have the authority to negotiate tariffs himself. Under the International Emergency Economic Force Actand all his transactions will be declared null, resulting in resetting the tariff level to zero.

That would explain why Goldman Sachs moved its EU GDP estimate this morning. Upwards A note from Sahar Islam and Ayushi Mishra said it was down 0.1% following the transaction.

Analysts hint this morning that EU officials appear to have pulled wool in Trump’s eyes in negotiations. The deal includes $750 billion in “strategic purchases,” $600 billion in private investments, and “a huge amount of” military equipment purchases. But there is almost unanimous agreement on Wall Street that private investment will happen anyway in the normal course of business.

“$600 million represents an existing investment plan, not a new investment,” Markwall and his team German banks I wrote this morning.

“The Sky Pie”

And the Financial Times reported this morning that it is unable to actually fulfill the European “promise” to buy $750 billion in energy from the US, as the European fuel market is managed by private companies rather than governments. “Even if Europe wants to increase imports, we don’t know how the EU goes to these companies. I told the Fort. He called it “empty pie.”

The EU government does not have the authority to force private companies to buy American oil. Energy prices are falling, and the long-term trend in Europe is to phase out fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy. “European gas demand is soft and energy prices are falling. In any case, contracting with energy imports is not a private company.” I told the Fort. “Whether you like it or not, windmills are the winner in Europe.”

Military purchases are no surprise given that Russia is at war on its eastern flank. Europe needs all the weapons it can gain. NATO is happy to buy from the US

VOS Selection and Trump

And waiting on the wings is the biggest potential surprise for all those global stocks. VOS Selection and Trump. The incident was brought about by a group of small American companies who are angry at the rise in their bill due to tariffs. They argue that Trump’s claims about a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Force Act of 1977 are invalid for him to make trade transactions without Congressional approval. (Congress is the usual agency that approves trade transactions.) An appeal hearing was set for July 31, in which case the case could be sent to the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, D.C.

“If Ieepa is considered to be Isdmidmidmidable, the status of the trade deal is also unknown,” Jpmorgan’s Jahangir Aziz and Bruce Kasman reminded clients this morning.

Of course, the High Court is packed with Trump’s own choices, so you can expect a sympathetic hearing. Nevertheless, it would be a big leap for justice to agree to a daily trade deficit. It constitutes a national emergency.

Expect stock to jump if they ultimately declared the tariffs illegal.

Here is a snapshot of the action before the New York Opening Bell:

• S&P 500 Futures The index rose 0.28% this morning after 0.018% on Monday.
• Stoxx Europe 600 Early trading increased by 0.93%.
• UK FTSE100 Early trading saw an increase of 0.73%.
• Nikkei 225 in Japan It has decreased by 1.10%.
• China CSI 300 Index An increase of 0.39%.
• Korean Cosplay An increase of 0.66%.
• Indian Nifty 50 Increased by 0.50%.
• Bitcoin Holds over $118K.