To take a break after a recent sale, stocks need to meet in such a way that only occurs in bull markets

• All major US stock market indexes A strong end to this year is needed just to finish the flat. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dowit usually only happens in years when the market is rising and has not experienced a recession like it is now.

Since President Donald Trump announced he was cleaning up Customs policy The US stock market lost trillions of wealth as it plunged global markets more than a week ago. All major indices, such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones industrial average, fell the year after the market responded extremely negatively to Trump’s new trade policy.

Major sales triggered by the new Trump policy reverse Another good year in the market. Investors and analysts hoped that the US stock market would continue to deliver solid returns, even if it slowed from its record pace over the past two years. In fact, Trump’s elections brought a new wave of market optimism, initially as inventory. It has risen sharply This is the hidden side of what many people considered professional business presidents.

The opposite is the truth now. Since he returned to the White House, the market has sunk behind the uncertainty Trump has been injected into the US economy.

To make up for the losses they have incurred so far this year, the US major stock indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) need to gather to some extent what happened only in a good year, although not all unheard of.

However, it seems unlikely that a strong year of 2025 will occur. Most major Wall Street banks have since the market crash caused by Trump’s tariff announcement revision Their annual forecast for the economy to reflect Continuous economic downturn. Some of them bank I asked for a recession As the stock market slides matched Crater Bond Market And a Underrated of US dollars.

Until Friday, the S&P 500 has fallen 8.8%. This is a tough reversal from the profits of ripler rings in 2023 and 2024, and together explained the best 2 years of stretching Since 1998.

To flatten that loss and year, the S&P 500 needs to rise 9.4% from its April 11 closing price. In that case, investors would not lose money, but they could not get cents either.

Similar or better growth rates from April 11th to the end of the year are not entirely different on the S&P 500. In fact, it has occurred 22 times since the modern version of the index was established in 1957. The S&P 500 will only grow more than 9.4% since April 11th of the bull year, rather than a down market like in 2025, according to data provided by Wealth Manager’s Assetmark and Assetmark. luckCalculation of. The worst performance in 2016 was a 12% annual total return rate. The best year of 1958 was a juicy 43.4% return per year. Over all 22 years that met that standard, the average annual revenue was 27%.

In other words, the S&P 500 will skyrocket from April to December when the market is ripping, not when it is ripping. 

Certainly, there was a significant precedent for the market crisis at the beginning of the year, which would be a huge profit for the year. In 2020, a year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the S&P 500 recorded performances from April 11th to December, earning a 34.6% profit during that period. This brought about an overall annual revenue of 18.4%. However, these market slumps were caused by a variety of reasons. In 2020, the market responded to the spread of highly infectious diseases that still had no cure, but this time it was responding to trade policies intentionally implemented by elected officials.

The potential recovery of Nasdaq and Dow has the same dynamics as the dynamics of the S&P 500. They need to rise at a reasonable rate, but they only happen when the stock market is thriving, not when it is trying to revive itself.

Analysts now expect stock market performance in 2025 to be worse than expected at the beginning of the year. In December 2024, the Wall Street consensus for the S&P 500 was a median price target of 6,625. lseg. This would have meant a 12.9% increase in 2025, based on where the S&P 500 opened on January 2nd.

Last week, many banks lowered their forecasts for the S&P 500, which is far below the median since the start of the year. BMO has revised slightly bullish calls from 6,700 to 6,100. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast twice this year from 6,500 to 6,200 to 5,700. The second Goldman revision means a 2.8% loss this year. UBS and RBC also look forward to losses that year.

In 2025, the Nasdaq fell 10.9%. The decline was 180, when the index began the year, exceeding 22,000 in February. The NASDAQ should rise 12.2% to end the year that began at 20.975.62. It’s not uncommon to see 12% rallies from April to December. Assetmark data and luckCalculation of. But again, it only happens in positive years. The worst year in 1992, when the time frame was ready at least 12.2%, was a return of 8.9% per year. The best batch return was in 1999, with a 102% return.

The Dow, which survived the worst crash, fell 5.1% in 2025. To end the year without losses, the Dow should rise 5.4% per year. The Dow’s historic performance may provide investors with a measure of their choice. Since 1958, which saw an increase of at least 5.4% between April 11 and December, there has been a year in which the index did not end positively. In 1984, the Dow increased that period by 7.1%, ending the year with a loss of -3.7% in total. But most of the time, the 35 years prior to our standards coincided with strong growth. The Dow averaged 18.6% that year. The best year was 1975, with a return of 38.2% per year.

This story was originally introduced Fortune.com