Trump’s 100% film tariffs could pose “the biggest risk” for US studios, analysts warn

• President Donald Trump proposed a 100% tariff on the film on Sunday The move, produced outside the US, has been straining major US streamers and studio investors, and stocks for companies like Netflix and Paramount Slid. Analysts warn that tariffs are not finalized, but will lead to less expensive films.

Just as President Donald Trump tries to impose 100% customs tax Films produced outside the US have volatile investors in film production studios.

Stock prices of major studios and streaming companies have slid following the news. Netflix Shares fell 1.5% at noon on Monday, while Paramount shares fell about 0.7%. Disney and Universal parent Comcast It fell in pre-market trading on Monday before bounced back to each price at the end of Friday.

Trump said on Sunday Social Media Posts He plans to implement taxes on foreign films as a way to prevent the US film industry from “destroying a very fast death.”

“Other countries offer all sorts of incentives to keep filmmakers and studios away from the United States,” he said. “Hollywood and many other parts of the United States are devastated. This is a coordinated effort by other countries and, therefore, a threat to national security.”

White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. luck There were no final decisions regarding foreign film tariffs.

“The administration is exploring all the options to provide President Trump’s direction to protect our country’s national and economic security while making Hollywood great again,” Desai said.

US studios are turning more and more attention Filming projects overseas As a way to take advantage of tax benefits and find unique locations for television films. Netflix announced its plans in February Invest $1 billion He will produce films and series in Mexico over the next four years.

According to Report Entertainment industry consultancy Olsberg SPI, 36 European countries and 15 Asian countries provided incentives for film production in 2024. This increased in 2017 from Europe and seven Asian countries offering tax credits and rebates.

Analysts warn of tariff outcomes

Trump has suggested that tariffs on foreign films will boost US filmmakers and studios, but analysts have warned that the move could have an opposing intentional effect, and as a result, it will increase the production costs that studios will need to make tough decisions.

“A 100% tariff on some or all of the costs of a film leads to a decrease in all films in the business, more expensive films, lower revenue.” Morgan Stanleywrote this in a memo to investors on Monday. “The reality is that certain films have writing, production, editing, post-production, and visual effects. All of this happens in different countries.”

In 2023, US films brought in $22.6 billion in exports, contributing to the industry’s $15.3 billion in trade surplus. data From the Film Association.

Information about what Trump’s proposed levies includes is sparse, and whether Swinburn will guide Swinburn to which projects (such as ongoing or recently completed filming) will be affected, and whether tariff movements will set a path for imposing a path for television filming abroad.

Most of his concern is the potential risks of countries that could impose retaliatory tariffs on US projects or block US releases.

“Do foreign governments respond by blocking exports of US content through theaters, streaming, or both?” Swinburn said in his notes. “This is probably the biggest risk, and it could even increase the likelihood that US streaming services will be taxed at a substantially higher rate or reduce the scope of Hollywood content.”

This story was originally introduced Fortune.com