Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline is causing market anxiety, top analysts say

Trump’s July 9 deadline followed his sweeping mutual tariff address in April, sparking global panic and S&P Hut It’s worth $5 trillion in about two days. As the deadline for next week approaches, the Trump administration has announced new trade agreements with countries including China, the UK, Vietnam and Indonesia, but details about these contracts are scarce, and words of further transactions have yet to clarify consumers and investors.

Investors say “TacosOr Trump will always kick the chickens out. There, Trump announces sudden tariffs on imports, and the market falls when he suspends.

“The time is ticking over to implement a trading framework,” said Dan Ives, senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities. luck. “The market is shrugging, but for businesses operating every day, there are huge unknowns and many white knuckles. It’s a crucial week and a crucial tariff a few months ahead.”

Economists are already hoping for current tariff charges Increases costs For consumer goods this summer, these prices could rise further after July 9th. The Pantheon Macroeconomics economist wrote Thursday that there is a “immediate risk” of a temporary jump in tariff rates across the board as deadlines approach. If imposed, mutual interest rates could raise consumer prices from tariffs under the current tariff rates from 1% to 1.5%, they wrote.

But experts are skeptical that Trump will maintain the mutual rates imposed next week. Trump and China officially made rare earth trades in June after Trump He was briefly charged 125% mandate on China’s imports in April.

“However, we expect tariff ratchet-up to be short-lived. Other countries will respond with a strong response. “The economic background is weaker compared to April, and further declines in the president’s approval ratings since then suggest that the final climb is likely.”

Some experts have little anticipated changes as the deadline approaches. This is because we need to refine our agreements with our current major trading partners.

“So far, we have only a few agreements that are not very detailed in itself,” said Paul Donovan, UBS chief economist. luck In Thursday’s email. “China’s ‘agreement’ is merely partial emissions from unsustainable transactions. The UK “contract” is partially enacted with many disagreements over the unresolved details.

The credibility of the Trump in question

The market has become accustomed to Trump walking back to the extreme tariff threat. Now, experts say Trump’s next move will inform if the country negotiating with the US has a similar mentality.

“(Trump) doesn’t want to be accused of chickens because it will undermine his credibility in future negotiations,” said Thierry Withman, an economist at Macquarie Group Financial Market. luck. “The focus is always on showing him that he can actually cut you off.”

But Wizman expects some deals to be announced, but he will be promoted by the administration, he says.

“Trump can always come out and say, ‘We have a deal,’ but that’s going to be a very narrow trade. So they’ll separate what they agreed and say it’s a deal like it’s with China,” Wisman said. “There are many ways this can go right, and it’s also a lot of ways that it can spin.”

Experts say they look forward to continuing past consultations on July 9 with many major trading partners, such as the EU.

“The deadline will probably not change that much. In most cases, the status quo will remain, but negotiations will remain more or less energetic depending on the importance of the bilateral relationship,” writes Donovan of UBS.

Trade with China

China accounts for around 37.6% of imports this year, according to the supply chain intelligence platform Project44. This is an increase of 0.1% from 2024.

Still, Wizman says that trade deals coming in the near future may try to lock China out of capital moving within and outside the supply chains of other countries. He says this could be the focus of trade deals with countries such as Japan, South Korea and the EU.

“If we could make these countries rely on bilateral trade with the US and reduce their dependence on China, we would essentially push these countries into orbit permanently,” Wizman said.