Why Top Market Strategist says his base case is still a 25% stock decline and a recession in 2025

• Peter Berezin of BCA Research maintains a bearish outlook despite the tariff suspension.

• Berezin predicts that the S&P 500 will drop to 4,500, with a 60% chance of a recession.

• Economic concerns include trade uncertainty, increased delinquency and weakening of the labour market.

When there’s a strategist on the other side of Wall Street Dial the probability of a recession, Peter Berezin BCA research is doubling.

President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff suspension was enough to ease the worries of some investors, but BCA’s leading global strategist keeps him A weak view.

Berezin lowered his outlook for a recession Release date Level, he still expects AN Economic slowdown It will be rolled out this year.

“I reduced the probability of a recession from 75% to 60%, so that’s not a huge recession possibility, but that’s still my basic case. And in that basic case, I’m expecting the S&P to trade to around 4,500,” Berezin told Business Insider. This marks a 25% decrease in the benchmark index from the Friday level.

4,500 sounds like a sharp drop from a height close to the stock market is currently trading out, but Berezin doesn’t think it will take much to cause autumn.

To enter that level, the S&P 500 will have to trade with 18x revenues at an EPS of $250. The index is currently trading at around 23 times the revenue. The EPS is around $260. This isn’t too far in Berezin’s opinion.

“It’s hard to argue that we’re very optimistic at this point, either in the stock market or the economy,” Berezin said.

The economy was already showing signs of weakness Before the trade warsaid Berezin.

Go back December 2024Berezin was calling for a recession in 2025. Stock markets are falling sharply Over 20%. His S&P 500 goal of 4,452 was one of the lowest on Wall Street.

Today, Berezin has continued trade uncertainty, increased shortages, and Consumer weakness.

The openings for recruitment since early 2022 will “remove many of the insulation that protected the labor market,” Berezin said.

Certainly, other economists are in the labor market. It’s weaker than it looks – The Pantheon Macroeconomics Sam Tomb is interested in slowing employment and the decline in feelings of small and medium-sized businesses.

Berezin also points out that consumers’ late payment rates for credit card and car loans are rising. In the first quarter of 2025, credit card delinquency reached 3.05%. This was the highest level since 2011, and “the unemployment rate was 8%,” Berezin said.