xi’s absence from the BRICS summit raises speculation about China’s influence

Chinese President Xi Jinping In Brazil, When China’s leaders missed out on gatherings of major emerging economies for the first time. The sudden decision sparked widespread speculation about internal political dynamics within China and the fraying unity of the BRICS itself.

China’s official explanation – “scheduling conflict” and the fact that XI already met with Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva earlier this year has sparked skepticism. Prime Minister Li Qiang attended the summit at Xi’s location, continuing the recent trend of Xi reducing his appearance on the global stage.

“That doesn’t make sense,” he said. Gordon Chanan expert on US-China relations. “Not only Brazil, but there are many other countries at the BRICS Summit. For me, it’s very important that Xi Jinping is not ongoing. It suggests turbulence at home. There are signs that he has lost control of the military, indicating that his civilian rival is reaffirming his strength. This is a symptom.”

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Bryan Burack of the Heritage Foundation agrees that Xi’s absence highlights a deeper problem. He said countries like Brazil and Indonesia have recently made moves suggesting that they would impose tariffs on China rather than overloading and dumping the industry, increasing the rift within the group.

“China is actively harming all of these countries, with a few exceptions, through its malignant trade policy and dumping and overcapacity.”

Tensions with India and global trade pressure may also be factors

Some analysts point to a rise Friction between China and India As a contributing factor in Xi’s decision to skip the summit.

“China has been at war with India for decades,” Blank said. “These are fundamentally opposed concerns. It’s difficult to see China change its behavior in the short term, and it will keep the tension high.”

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to play a leading role in the rally.

Another important leader, Russian President Vladimir Putin – is only expected to deal with the group on a video-by-video.

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BRICS: united and divided into decades of tension

It was formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China, and later joined by South Africa, and BRICS was assumed to be a G7-dominated non-Western counterweight. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and most recently Indonesia have expanded to strengthen its economic footprint.

Economist Christian Briggs highlights the large scale of BRICS. “BRICS currently consists of 12 full members and up to 23 partners. Collectively, they make up more than 60% of the world’s GDP and roughly 75% of the world’s population.

However, despite its size, the bloc remains ideologically and strategically fragmented. “It’s a group of countries that hate each other,” Black said honestly. “China hurts many of them through unfair trade practices. There is not much incentive for true unity.”

Currency ambitions and strategic differences

The alliance’s desire to challenge the US dollar through alternative payment systems and potential BRICS currencies has gained media traction, but experts note that they overestimate this threat.

“There was a lot of fear about BRICS currency,” Burack said. “But the interests of these countries are completely different. There’s more smoke than a fire when it comes to currencies challenges against the dollar.”

Chan repeated this skepticism. “The only country that can challenge the dollar is the US. The weakness of the dollar is not due to what BRICS is doing, but what we do within the country.”

Still, Briggs offers counterpoints, claiming that BRICS members are already restructuring global currency flows.

“They are moving from the dollar to the digital yuan, rupee and rubles, and China has launched a rapid alternative that has already been adopted by the Caribbean banking sector.

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Is BRICS still affecting us?

That cohesion remains questionable, but BRICS presents a long-term challenge to US influence. Especially in areas where Washington has diplomatically and economically retreated.

“China has filled the void left by the US in places like Africa,” Briggs said. “We currently control about 38% of the world’s minerals, while Russia’s economy is doubling despite sanctions.

However, Chang sees India as a brake of an offensive anti-Western tilt. “Brick has “I.” It’s India. Modi doesn’t want to be part of the anti-western block. As long as India is at BRICS, the rest of the world is safe. ”

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Missed opportunities – or calculated power movement?

For some, Xi’s no-show signals Beijing’s instability. For others, the opposite: it shows confidence in China’s control over other BRICS members.

“He doesn’t need to be there,” Briggs insisted. “With Xi’s power, he can delegate. China currently trades with nearly 80% of the world. He is even moving forward with the agenda in his absence.”

What’s clear is that BRICS continues to evolve. That internal contradiction is as visible as geopolitical ambitions. Whether Xi’s absence marks a retreat or a readjustment is one of the key issues that pop up at the Brazilian summit.